...because Metsblog is for optimistic pu**ies.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Game #71 (41-30) - R.A. Dickey = Cy Young????

The return home has gotten the Mets back to their winning ways, as they blew past the Tigers tonight by a score of 5-0.  Robert Allan Dickey won his sixth straight start, and is the first Mets pitcher to win 6 of his first 7 starts with the team.  The Mets are now 15-4 for a .789 winning percentage in June; the last time the Mets won more than 70% of their games in a month was all the way back in June of 1990 when they went 21-7.   The best month in franchise history came in September of 1988 when the Mets went 20-6 for a win percentage of .769 (the '69 Amazins' went 23-7 in their famous September comeback.)  Not many notes tonight, it's been a busy week, hence no update from yesterday.  Without further ado...


  • Poor Execution by the Mets in failing to get Reyes home after his leadoff triple in the bottom of the first.  Wright made up for it with a nice RBI double down the line in the third; the Mets are now 27 (change)-7 in games in which Reyes scores a run... and have won 15 of the last 16 games in which he's scored.  Reyes fell a double short of the cycle after Angel Pagan missed the cycle by a HR last night.  Jose is now hitting .346 in June, and has scored 18 runs and stolen 7 bases in 19 games.  It's safe to say he's starting to get healthy, and it's great to have him back.
  • It's really fun to watch Jeff Francoeur sometimes.  Others, like when he struck out on a slider that was literally 4 feet off the plate and in the dirt in the 2nd inning tonight?  Not so awesome.   Frenchy has been swinging at a whopping 42.8% of pitches outside the zone this year, second in the majors to Vlad Guerrero.  Despite his free-swinging reputation, this is the worst number of his career, as he'd never had a chase percentage over 36.7% coming into this year.   Would be great if HoJo could get in his head and just make a minor tweak there.
  • Why does Manuel continue to make such terrible decisions with the bullpen?  Dickey's thrown 1 complete game shut out in his career, and Manuel takes him out up 5-0 after throwing 97 pitches and easily retiring 13 in a row?  The guys a knuckleballer for crying out loud!!  It's little things like that which are the reason I truly feel that despite the Mets' success this season they do not like Jerry very much.  I understand you just want to get K-Rod some work - but why couldn't he come in last night with a 8 run lead?  Why does he have to "get some work in" at the expense of a special moment in Dickey's career?  You can bet your ass that if Dickey was one of Manuel's "gangstas" he would have been out there for the 9th.
  • Ike Davis has hit safely in 8 of the past 9 games, and has raised his average nearly 20 points in that span.  However, his selectiveness at the plate is becoming a concern - after walking 22 times against 38 K's in April and May, he's now walked only 3 times against 20 K's in the month of June.  Certainly an unsettling trend worth keeping an eye on.
  • Hopefully Angel Pagan will be ok, according to Jerry it was only a minor muscle spasm and he's going to be day to day.  He's become such an integral part of this team I can't imagine having him out for any sustained period of time, at least not til Beltran comes back.
The Mets go for their third sweep in their last 4 series tomorrow at Citi Field as Hisanori Takahashi takes on near-perfect Armando Galarraga at 7:10 PM.  Until then, I'll leave you to come up with your own reasons why being a met fan sucks.

Monday, June 21, 2010

The Approaching Trade Deadline

We are now almost at the halfway point in the season, and with the first day of summer, it's time for the trade talk to start heating up.   Let's be realistic here, the Mets simply cannot win a World Series this year as they are currently constructed.  The pitching staff has been incredible for the last month, but a rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Takahashi, and Dickey does not a champion make.  Santana is clearly in decline, but still a top 15 pitcher in baseball.  Pelfrey has proven to be a solid #2 thus far, but has struggled in his last two starts, and let's keep in mind that he's only thrown 200 innings in a season once, in 2008 (200.2).  He's currently on pace for 218, and how his arm responds down the stretch will be huge for the Mets.  Keep in mind that in 2008, Pelfrey went 11-2 with a 3.01 ERA over the months of June, July, and August; in September he went 0-3 with a 4.07 ERA as the Mets collapsed for the 2nd season in a row.  Niese, while outstanding of late, is far from a sure thing, and has never thrown more than 178 innings in a season.  We've talked enough about Takahashi and Dickey to get my thoughts across, but, needless to say, neither one is really a guy you'd love to see trot out there in Game 4 of a playoff series.  With that in mind, let's take a look first at the names we're sure to hear the most in trade talks, and a brief overview of their status.
  • Cliff Lee - Lee is unquestionably the biggest name expected to be available at the trade deadline.  He's established himself over the past two plus seasons as a legitimate ace, and gets bonus points for being a lefty.  He's been out of this world this year, posting a 5-3 record for a terrible Mariners club with a 2.55 ERA.  His peripheral stats are where the story is truly told though.  He sports an absolutely ridiculous 1.89 FIP and a 67/4 K/BB rate.  To put that in perspective, in the past 35 seasons, only two pitchers have ever posted an FIP under 2: Pedro Martinez at 1.39 in his 1999 season (considered by almost all advanced statistics to be the greatest pitching season of all time) and Doc Gooden in his 1984 rookie season, when he posted a 1.69 FIP.  The current 16.75 K/BB rate would be the greatest of all time by more than 50% - Bret Saberhagen holds the current record with a 11.0 rate in 1994.    As we saw in last year's playoffs, Lee has proven himself to be a quality pitcher under pressure.  The issue, of course, with Lee is that he is expected to be nothing more than a $5M rental for any team, and the Yankees are currently considered a nearly sure thing destination for him in free agency.  MLB sources are saying the Mariners are seeking major league ready bats.  My question is this; if Beltran is back at the All-Star break and proves himself healthy, what about a package of Angel Pagan, Fernando Martinez, and a toss in for Lee?  I personally don't even think the price would need to be that steep - the breakout year of Pagan, combined with the pending return of Beltran gives the Mets 4 OF's who should be playing every day, and kind of leaves F-Mart's future in slight flux, even though he's just 21.  Lee should be high on the Mets list, as long as the price stays reasonable, as he would give the Mets 2 of the top 5 lefties in baseball at the front of their rotation.
  • Roy Oswalt - Astros' righty Oswalt has had a solid bounce-back campaign with the Astros this year after posting the worst numbers of his career last season.  His ERA stands at 3.12, back in line with his 2002-2007 rate of 3.11.  Most importantly, he's showing a rebirth in his style, throwing his changeup more than twice as much as he had previously in his career, and throwing fastballs only 55% of the time, the lowest rate of his career.  This has resulted in a surge in his strikeouts, and his 8.68 K/9 is the highest he's posted since his 2001 rookie season.  His BABIP is slightly below his .302 career mark at .281, but a deviation that small wouldn't be expected to skew his numbers too significantly.   One of the more interesting tidbits supporting adding Oswalt for a stretch run is his stellar track record of 2nd half success.  A 72-56 career record before the break jumps to a 70-22 ledger in the 2nd half (a gross .761 winning percentage.), and his peripherals all improve significantly.  Oswalt's contract situation is perhaps his biggest drawback, as he'd be owed around $8M for 2010, and is under contract for 2011 and 2012 at $16M per season, although the 2012 year comes with a unique dual clause; the club has a $2M buyout, and Oswalt has the option to opt out on his own for a "reduced" buyout.  Very strange.  It's not yet clear what the Astros are looking for in return for Oswalt, or even if owner Drayton McLane (who's known for clinging tightly to players he personally likes) will make him available.  Like Lee, Oswalt has had playoff success, although his 4-0 record is misleading, as it's accompanied by a 1.44 WHIP and a very pedestrain 1.68 K/BB rate.  He hasn't been to the playoffs since 2005, however, and a return to a contender could truly bring out the best in the fiery Oswalt.  
  • Fausto Carmona - At his blog for ESPN today, Buster Olney reports that the Mets have been kicking the tires on Carmona over the past few weeks.  After I throw up on myself, I decided to take a closer look at Carmona, and what I've found is none too pretty.  The story on Carmona is well known - he posted a massive 2007 season in his 2nd year, finishing 4th in the AL Cy Young voting while going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for an Indians team that won the AL Central.   His 2008 and 2009 seasons were injury-riddled disasters, including a demotion to AAA in 2009 in an effort to help him find his stuff.  Carmona features a heavy sinking fastball, a slider, and a change, and some scouts blame his troubles in 2008/9 on his decision to ditch a split fingered fastball which had given him a great deal of success in 2007.   However, after posting a 5.89 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last two seasons, Carmona has had more success in 2010, going 6-5 over his first 14 starts with a 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Most importantly his 3.98 FIP is right in line with his 3.94 FIP of 2007, suggesting that a return to a better team could see a big jump in his victory total.  The principal concern with Carmona, of course, is that he's got a good amount of Ollie Perez in him, though not as severe.  He's liable to go off for 6 walks virtually any time out there and when his control is off, he's virtually guaranteed to take a loss.  Carmona does, however, have a friendly contract; he's due only another $2.6M this year, $6.1M this year, and then he's got team options at $7M for 2012, $9M for 2013, and $12M for 2014.  At the worst, if Carmona did turn out to be Ollie, they could cut him loose and lose only $8.7M on it.  Compared to Ollie's contract, that's chump change.
  • Jake Westbrook - I've said it before, so I'll make this brief.  The problem with Westrbook is that he's really just an average pitcher, and in one of Mark Shapiro's rare bad decisions, he's paid like a very good one.  He's making $10M this year and $11M next, and for a pitcher who's career ERA+ is pretty much the definition of league average at 101, that's just too much money.  He's 32, and in my opinion I'd much rather keep some young players than take a "flier" on Westbrook.  End of the day, he's not really a major improvement over Takahashi, Dickey, or even a healthy Maine, so what's the point in making a move for him?
  • Kevin Millwood - Let's put this simply.  PLEASE OMAR DO NOT TRADE FOR THIS WASHED UP LOSER.  Millwood was once one of the better pitchers in the National League, but that was more than a decade ago.  He posted a 3.67 ERA for Texas last season, which seems superb on the surface, until you look at his 4.80 FIP.  With a BABIP of .279 which was a massive 80 points lower than his 2008 and 2009 combined, and a 78.6% strand rate that ranked 10th in the majors it's pretty easy to see that Millwood is a declining pitcher who was saved by some luck.  The Rangers must have seen this as well, practically giving him away to the Orioles for Chris Ray of the 7.72 ERA and a player to be named later.  Millwood started with a strong April, and had his ERA as low as 3.15 on May 7th.  Since then, however, he has gone 1-5, while his ERA has ballooned to 5.12.  Most importantly, the only outlier in his advanced statistics is his HR rate, which is 16.1, compared to his career 9.8%.  Nothing suggests Millwood would be an improvement for the Mets, and he's surely cost at least a player like Dillon Gee; who, at this point, could be better than Millwood anyway.  
  • Ben Sheets - Sheets is an interesting wild card in the trade deadline derby.  After the A's shocked everyone and inked Sheets to a 1 year $10 million dollar deal coming off major elbow surgery, Sheets has been anywhere from bad to worse thus far, going 2-7 with a 4.95 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.94 FIP.  His HR/FB, BABIP, line drive, and GB/FB rates are all roughly in line with his career averages, so it's tough to point to bad luck for his poor performance.  The only reason he could be worth a flier is that he's a free agent next year and the hope that he could revert to his pre-injury form by returning to the NL.  That said, at this point, it's hard to imagine Sheets being a major contributor on a playoff team.
  • Edwin Jackson - With the Diamondbacks floundering in last place, they seem like locks to make some moves at the deadline.   While younger starters like Ian Kennedy are likely to stay in place, the D-Backs would likely move veterans like Jackson and (gasp) Dan Haren.  Jackson is sure to be the cheaper piece, so let's take a look at him first.  Once the top pitching prospect in baseball while a Dodger, Jackson floundered in brief stints at the major league level for them, before being traded before the 2006 season to Tampa for Danys Baez and Lance Carter.  He struggled there as well until seeming to break through in the 2008 season, going 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA.  Thanks to the Rays' abundance of pitching, Jackson was moved to the Tigers for the 2009 season, where he was again successful, going 13-9 with a career low 3.62 ERA.  Traded to the D-Backs in the offseason as part of the 3-team deal centering on Curtis Granderson, Jackson has appeared to struggle on a bad team, going 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA.  However, Jackson is actually performing at the highest level of his career; his 4.07 FIP is the lowest of his career, his 7.62 K/9 is the highest he's posted, and his HR/9 is at a career low despite his HR/FB% being right in line with his career numbers.  This is one case where poor results seem to be based on being on a poor defensive team, and a change of scenery could be exactly what Jackson needs to follow through on his career best peripherals.  He's still only 26, and is under team control next year as an arbitration eligible case - in short, he's exactly the type of young player that would be worth a flier on.
  • Dan Haren - It's likely that any team looking to acquire Haren will have to dump their entire farm system in order to get him, as he's only 29 and under contract from 2011-13 for $41M.  Haren is commonly viewed as an ace, although it's tough to find a justification for that in his overall numbers.  He's always been an elite pitcher in the first half of seasons, but for some inexplicable reason, a 2nd half collapse from Haren has become a standard of every year.   In 2009 his ERA and WHIP jumped from first half marks of 2.01 and 0.81 to 4.62 and 1.26; in 2008 it was 2.72 and 0.95 to 4.18 and 1.37; 2007 was 2.30 and 1.00 to 4.15 and 1.50; and lastly, in 2006 he went from 3.52 and 1.13 to 4.91 and 1.31.   Swings like that are tough to ignore, at least on a contender; it's tough to call a player an "ace" when he posts league-average numbers in the 2nd half every year.   Haren's splits also show his worst FIP, WHIP, BAA, and won-loss record come in September - so you have to ask yourself if at the price that it would take to acquire Haren, is he even worth it?  You decide.
For me, the players I'd most like to see the Mets key on are Lee, Oswalt, and Jackson.  As I mentioned before, the breakout of Pagan could end up offer the Mets some flexibility in trading, especially for Lee and Oswalt.  I'm also firmly in the camp of trading Fernando Martinez now while his stock is still even remotely high.  Martinez may only be 21, but he continues to be injury prone, and to be honest, his performance does not live up to his hype.  Optimists can say what they want about how he's been so young at every level, but at some point you need to see results, and after almost 1200 minor league at bats, F-Mart's OPS is a meager .781.  With players like Stanton and Heyward coming up even younger than Martinez is, it gets harder to be patient with him.  Given the track record of the Mets with Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, and Lastings Milledge before Martinez, if he's to be the piece that can acquire a true frontline starter and give them a real chance to win this year, I say it's 100 percent a move you have to make.  For players like Millwood and Westbrook, they don't seem to be worth even the lower tier prospects in the system, and I'd love to see the Mets avoid them at all costs.  Ruben Tejada is a player I wouldn't like to see the Mets move unless it was for one of the aces, and I feel the same about Brad Holt and Dillon Gee.  Obviously, Ike Davis is at this point untouchable, and unfortunately I doubt Daniel "overhyped with no talent" Murphy has any real value out there.  It would seem to me that it's going to take a player like Martinez or Pagan to acquire the type of pitcher essential to helping the Mets win this year.  

Speaking of untradeable prospects, the Mets have finally decided to move Mejia back to AA Binghamton to continue his growth as a starter, and called Bobby Parnell back to the bullpen to move into Mejia's undefined role.  About time huh?

Would be great to hear what some of you think about the Mets' trade prospects, so please give some comments and let's get a little dialogue going!  We all know that at the end of the day, the Mets won't do anything exciting, one of the endless reasons why being a Met fan sucks.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Games #67-69 (39-30) - A Rough Patch in the Bronx

The Mets hot streak hit a bump this weekend, losing the last 2 of the 3 game set in the Bronx.  Here's some notes from all the weekend's play.


  • Santana has now given up 3 grand slams this year - before this year he had given up 2 in his career.  Wow.  With each start it becomes more and more clear that Johan is no longer an elite pitcher, but merely a very good one.   That's not a bad thing, except he's owed $97 million over the 2011-2014 season (although the Mets do hold a $5.5M buyout option on 2014).  At this point, I'm pretty firm in my belief that the Mets will need to add a Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt at the deadline to win a playoff series - more on that tomorrow.  Santana/Pelfrey is just not a strong enough 1/2 punch right now.
  • Interesting note - the Mets have gone 13-4 in the month of June, and their starting pitchers have only 3 losses this month.  Santana has 2 of those losses, and Pelfrey has the other.
  • With a 3-3 split, the Mets and Yankees have now split 6 of the 14 interleague series.  The Yankees have also won 6, and the Mets have won twice.  Of course, the only series that really mattered, in 2000, was an easy Yankees win.
  • No idea what to do with Tatis - he is clearly floundering at the plate right now.  Minaya has done yet again a terrible job of providing this team with depth.  Their bench is among the weakest in major league baseball, and there isn't really anyone on the bench who strikes opposing teams as a threat right now.   Carter can only hit righties (and mediocre at that at best), Tatis can't hit, period, the Other Feliciano does not belong in the major leagues, and well, Alex Cora is arguably the worst offensive player in the major leagues.  Is it time to call Jermaine Dye and see if he'd be willing to play once a week for the Mets?  I'm sure he could learn to play a little 1B and spell Ike as well.  What about Joe Crede to be a pinch hitter/OF/3B/1B backup?  Those guys CAN'T be worse than what Omar has provided Jerry with.
  • Jose Reyes hit 2 HR on Sunday, and he's now hitting .322 for the month with 4 HR and 7 RBI while posting a .950 OPS.  However, underlying those standard numbers is an extremely low 10.2% line drive rate, and number which needs to prop back up for Jose to continue this success.   His HR/FB rate has jumped to 18.2% this month (vs. his career 6.2% rate), and his pop up rate has shrunk to a miniscule 4.5%, compared to his career 11.7% rate.  Tough to credit all of his June success to luck, but the outliers suggest his been more lucky than good this month.  Would be nice to see that line drive number get closer to normal in July.
  • Jason Bay, David Wright, and Ike Davis combined for 5 hits over the 3 games.  There's just no chance the Mets are going to beat teams of high quality like the Yankees with that production from the 3-4-5 positions.  I'll give Davis and Wright a break here, but Bay is just terrible at the plate right now.  He's been sneaking in a few more hits of late, but I don't think he ever feels confident at the plate, and I doubt the opposing teams fear him right now.  Certainly not playing up to his contract, as we've constantly discussed here.  
  • Very little question anymore about who the best pitcher in New York is.  The real question now is if Phil Hughes is #2, and if he's not, is Pelfrey, or is Johan.  I'm not even gonna go there.
Tomorrow we'll take a look at the Mets approach to the trade market, and especially pitching, in the next month or so.  The Mets will return home to Citi Field on Tuesday to host the Detroit Tigers, with the red-hot Jon Niese taking on Tigers ace Justin Verlander.  The way the Mets respond from this weekend's thumping against the Yanks will go a long way towards telling how the rest of this season will play out;  will it give us reasons to celebrate, or reasons to lament that being a Met fan sucks?

Friday, June 18, 2010

Game #66 (38-28) - Bring on the Bombers

Wow.  Not much else to say after the Mets completed their second straight road sweep against the Indians in Cleveland by a score of 6-4.   That's 11 of 12 for the Metropolitans heading into this weekend's showdown with the (ughhhhhhh) defending champion Yankees.   Hisanori Takahashi will take the hill for the Mets, luckily it's against the Yankees worst starter, Javy Vazquez, though Vazquez has pitched well in 4 of his last 5 starts.  Let's hope the Metties can keep it going against their Bronx neighbors.  Not a lot to say about tonight, hard to pay attention when I'm watching in PIP with the NBA Finals.
  • Mets are now 24-6 in games in which Jose Reyes scores a run.  Pretty safe to say that Jose's uptick in OBP over the last 2 weeks has played nicely into this hot streak.  3 for 5 tonight for Jose.  
  • Jake Westbrook has also been mentioned as a candidate for a deadline acquisition for the Mets.  Please, don't let this happen.   You could make the same "struggling because he's playing for a losing team" excuse one might make for Kevin Millwood, but I really don't see how Westbrook could help this team, especially not with Maine coming back (and Jerry saying he sees Maine as a starter).  Even more than that, I find it hard to believe that a young guy like Dillon Gee in AAA could be less successful in the majors than Westrbook or Millwood.  At the very least, I'd like to see what a young guy could do before trading prospects for has beens like this.
  • Pretty shocking to see Angel Pagan intentionally walked with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out to get to David Wright.  Wright was able to avoid the double play by hitting a slow enough grounder to avoid the double play and score a run, and Ike followed with a single to add another run.  I just can't remember seeing a guy get walked to get to the opposing team's best hitter in the 4th inning of a June game before - very odd.  Wright now has RBI's in 7 straight games since being moved back to the 3 hole, and has 14 RBI in that span. 


Elsewhere, have to tip your cap to Ubaldo Jimenez.  With a win today, Ubaldo is now just the 4th pitcher ever to win 13 of his 14 starts, joining Roger Clemens (13-0 in 1986), Lefty Gomez (13-1 in 1932) and Lefty Grove (13-1 in 1931).  Ubaldo lowered his ERA to 1.15, the 2nd lowest after 14 starts in MLB history.  Unreal what this kid is putting together this year.  If he can keep this pace and get to 20 by August 1, we could be watching something truly special.  The only pitcher since 1980 to win more than 24 games in a season has been Bob Welch, who won 27 en route to winning the 1990 AL Cy Young Award for the Oakland A's.   Considering the Mets haven't had a 20 game winner since Frank Viola went 20-12 in 1990, let's add that to the list of reasons why being a met fan sucks!

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Game #65 (37-28) - 10 of 11!

The unbelieveable hot streak continued tonight, as the Mets beat the Indians by a final of 8-4 to win their 6th in a row, and their 10th in their last 11.  The Mets are now 7-1 vs the American League, their best start vs. the Junior Circuit since the start of interleague play in 1997.  Most importantly, they are beating the terrible teams on the road that they should be beating, which to me is really separating this Mets team with the teams of the last 3 years.  They've been showing an unwillingness to play down to their competition that we haven't seen since 2006, and yet again, I'm starting to get my hopes up.  Kill me now.  Anywho, here's some notes on last night's performance.

  • The 7 doubles for the Mets tonight tied their season high, but it was a great way of highlighting the ability of this Mets team to score runs different ways.  7 extra base hits last night produced 8 runs, while only one extra base hit on Tuesday produced 7 runs.  The Mets are finding a way to get it done in multiple ways, which is what happens when you have a young team with speed and gap power.
  • Niese wasn't as good as his last two starts, but battled some bad location with his curveball and trouble with the mound to give 7 innings for the 3rd straight outing, putting his career high winning streak to three.  His peripherals are actually worse this year than last, with his FIP up to 3.76 from 3.25, and his HR/9 has doubled.  However, the increase in mixing his pitches has really padded his results, specifically that cutter that he began developing in 2008.  The cutter, which is much easier to control, is now being thrown 26.7% of the time, most at the expense of his curveball, which is obviously much harder to throw for a strike.  In Niese's first cup of coffee in 2008, Niese threw the curve 24.7% of the time; this year that number is 12.4% of the time.  Using the cutter so often has also given him a 4th velocity level, as he's throwing it at an average speed of 85.9, to go with his average 90.0 fastball, 81.6 MPH changeup, and 74.8 MPH curve.  Hitters are much more confused by Niese's approach this season, and he seems to be building a solid foundation for success going forward.  It's been a while since the Mets had 2 homegrown young pitchers with such strong foundations for continued success.
  • Wright now has 13 RBI in 6 games since moving back to #3 hole.  His season average has moved up to .291, and he's "only" struck out 8 times in his last 10 games, after 69 in his first 54.  He's improved his approach greatly against right handed pitching, and it's really showing in his performance.
  • Again, it's going to be very interesting to see what happens with Angel Pagan should Beltran come back in the 2nd half.  I don't really see how you can't sit him, but Francoeur has been playing too well to sit the bench, and Bay's just getting paid too much.  I'd really hate to be Jerry if/when this happens.  It's very tough to find a solution to this situation, because someone hot is going to have to sit down.  Dare I say that Pagan becomes a very interesting centerpiece to a Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt deal?  It would be a massive risk given Beltran's injury history and Francoeur's streakiness, but I have to ask you guys, do you think it would be worth it to move Pagan for an ace quality starter, one who would give the Mets a really strong shot to win the NL East this year?
  • What is going on with the mound in Cleveland?  We saw it drive Stephen Strasburg nuts on Sunday, and it certainly seemed to bother Niese a great deal tonight.  It wasn't as persistent a problem as it was on Sunday, and it didn't seem to bother Santana last night, but it definitely seems like something is a little off at Progressive Field.
  • Jason Bay should be ok after a pretty intense collision with Indians 1B Andy Marte in the first inning of last night's game.  He definitely gets toughness points in my book for staying in the game, as he wasn't pulled by Jerry until the 6th inning for "precautionary reasons."  He's listed as day to day, so keep an out for his status when the lineup is announced this afternoon.  As much as I've been riding Bay, I'm completely terrified of having to watch Jesus Feliciano with a bat in his hand 4 times.  It was a nice story and all to call him up, but can he go away now?  He's terrible.
The Mets go for their second straight road sweep (I can't believe I just typed that) against the Indians tonight at 7:05, with Robert Allan Dickey looking to win his 5th straight start against potential future Met Jake Westbrook.  Enjoy tonight's game, because Friday the Mets travel to the Bronx to take on the big boys, who are sure to give us some reminders of why being a met fan sucks.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Game #64 (36-28) - Am I a Rabbit's Foot?

Well, K-Rod did his best to make it interesting, but the Mets were able to hang on and beat Cleveland tonight to move to 36-28 on the year, their 9th win in their last 10.  The Mets are now 8 games over .500 for the first time since the last day of the 2008 season.  That's right, the Mets are now 9-1 since this blog started.  Just an example of my favorite team make me look like a horse's ass, as usual!  They'll look for 10 out of 11 tomorrow at 7:05 as Jon Niese looks to build on last Thursday's complete game one hitter against Cleveland "ace" Mitch Talbot.  And on to tonight's notes and observations...

  • Reyes has been on base to start the game 6 times in a row.  Newsflash, that goes a long way to making the Mets a winning team
  • SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!!!  Since moving back to the 3 hole 5 games ago (a move actively campaigned for on this blog), Wright is hitting 9-22, with 2 HR and 11 RBI.  He's driven in at least one run in each game.  I know the competition has been less than superb, but it's not as if Wright wasn't struggling against bad teams earlier in the year.  He sure seems to be more comfortable in the spot where he's always belonged. 
  • Santana's location and velocity looked much better in the first inning tonight, then disappeared in the 2nd inning.  He was back on point after rocky 2nd and 4th innings, giving up only 1 hit over his last 3 frames.  Most troubling was that for the second start in a row, Santana had more walks than strikeouts, having only 1K in each start.  Tonight was the third time in his last 9 starts that Santana managed only a single strikeout - prior to that, Santana had only done that 3 times in his first 239 starts.  It's certainly a troubling trend, and while Johan has battled well, the signs of his decline are everywhere, most significantly on his fastball, the average velocity of which has decreased for the sixth season in a row.  To read more about the trouble trend in Santana's peripherals, read a great piece here, courtesy of the fantastic Fangraphs.
  • Nice to see Ike hit that homer that just kept going against Masterson  What wasn't nice about that at bat was watching the cleanup hitter trying to bunt against the shift.  Look, I get that it's a free base hit if it stays fair.  However, in a tie game with my #5 hitter being pretty much useless save for one game this month, Ike's gotta be swinging away there.  How many times have we seen Beltran chastized for bunting in those situations?  
  • Speaking of my #5 hitter, Jason Bay is really scuffling, Sunday's performance against the Orioles included.  Another 0-5 tonight, but it's his approach that is really troubling.  He's pressing early in counts, and swinging at more pitches out of the zone, and right now he just doesn't seem to have any confidence at all in what he's doing up there.  
  • The Indians apparently are a completely terrible defensive team.  Carlos Santana has potential to be a star, Shin Soo Choo is one of the best and most underrated all around players in the game, and Hafner has been showing occassional bursts of the power that made him one of the most feared hitters in the game from 2005-2007.   Other than that, this team is just not good, and they should actually be applauded for being only 13 games under .500 this far into the season.  Let me just say that if the Mets can't find a away to sweep this team, it will be extremely disappointing.  
  • K-Rod looked great as always tonight, and I'm not really sure how much longer I'm going to be able to watch him without a vomit bag.  God forbid the Mets stay in the hunt (as of this writing, the Braves are down 5-1, and the Mets may find themselves just a half game behind tomorrow), and we have to watch him in pressure situations in a pennant race.  I'm going to die.
Today was the last day of Gary Matthews Jr.'s prolific Met career, as he was released after a spectactular 11 hits on a .190 average and a whopping 1 RBI.  Yeah another solid role player added by master talent evaluator Omar Minaya.  I think my favorite thing about the Mets season so far hasn't been the winning, it's been Minaya not being allowed to speak in public.  Every time he opens his mouth, it gives me another reason to say being a Met fan sucks.

Quick Change of Pace - the Revis Situation

Despite it's title, this blog was never intended to be solely about the Mets, especially when there would be Jets or Rangers business to discuss.  So let me just say that the Darrelle Revis situation makes me sick.  Revis is unquestionably an outstanding player, and hands down the most valuable player on the Jets.  However, his actions and his demands are flat out ridiculous, and if this is the person he is, let him go.


The heart of this problem is really the 3 year, $45.3 million deal the Raiders signed Nnamdi Asomugha to prior to the 2009 season.   Revis claimed today “It could be 50 cents more. Give me 50 cents more, and we’ll be OK," in response to a reporter's question of whether he'd be happy with a deal worth 1 dollar more than Asomugha's.  The issue Revis is clearly ignoring here is that Asomugha's deal absolutely crippled the Raiders cap-wise, and so he sits on a team that considered it a moral victory to get to 5-11 this year.  Based on statements Revis has made about Mangold, Ferguson, and Harris - who are also seeking new deals - it would seem that either he has no idea how the salary cap works, or he's just contradicting himself.  “It’s not just me. It’s a lot of guys,” Revis said. “They tell us we’re the core guys of this team, so why are you not treating us as one of the core guys?”  It seems Revis doesn't have the basic understanding that if the Jets are to pay him more than $15.3M a year, they won't have the money to surround him with other Pro-Bowl caliber veterans like Mangold, Ferguson, and Harris.  On top of that, what happens if all our dreams come true, and Shonn Greene carries his postseason momentum into a 1500 yard season this year?  You think he won't be asking for a new deal next spring?  It would appear Revis doesn't understand how a winning football team is constructed in a salary cap era, or worse, he doesn't care, and just wants to get paid.


For right now, we can all hope that Rex will work his magic on Revis, and convince him that the team is more important than his ego and desire to be the highest paid CB in the league.  Unfortunately, all signs are pointing away from this direction, and at that point, I say let him go, and get back what you can.  As great as Revis is, a successful defense is a unit, and I trust that Rex will adjust.  He took Chris McAlister and made him into an All-Pro, and he can do the same with Lowery, Cromartie, or a player yet to be drafted.  No player is more important than the team, and if Revis can't learn that lesson, let him follow in the footsteps of TO, DeAngelo Hall, and the rest; players who had the chance to be more than solo artists but wouldn't allow their egos and wallets to sacrifice for the good of the team.   I just hope it doesn't have to come to that.



Monday, June 14, 2010

A Brief Look at the Draft History for the New York Mets. Sigh.

In light of Mike Pelfrey's recent emergence into a legitimate ace quality pitcher, coupled with the choice of Matt Harvey at #7 overall in the draft, it seemed like a great time to take a look at the Mets' draft history.  It's important to keep in mind that, more than any other sport, the baseball draft is a crapshoot.  That said, the Mets draft history still stands out, both for it's ineptitude and for the brilliant flameouts of the two best picks they've made.

Since the first Rule 4 Draft in 1965, the Mets have had the #1 overall pick 5 times, tied with the San Diego Padres for the most by any team.  One of those picks is, of course, Darryl Strawberry, arguably the most successful Met position player of all time; though Wright could soon surpass him if he cuts back on strikeouts.  The Straw hit 252 HR in 8 Mets seasons, and was voted NL Rookie of the Year in his first season (1983), and making the NL All Star team in his next 7 seasons, before leaving the Mets in 1991 for his hometown of Los Angeles, where plummeting crack prices were too much for Darryl to resist.  The other four #1 overall picks?  Not so great.

Catcher Steve Chilcott was the Mets pick at #1 in the 1966 draft, famously selected over Arizona State OF Reggie Jackson, who accused the Mets of racism in overlooking him.  Whether he was right or wrong is irrelevant now (the Mets claimed they were drafting on positional need, and worried about Jackson's character), but Chilcott would bat .248 in 7 minor league seasons, and never get called up to the majors before retiring from injury in 1974.  As of today, Chilcott and Brien Taylor are the only two #1 overall picks to never play in the major leagues, although Matt Bush, who the Padres took at #1 in 2004, is currently in single A for the Rays after being out of baseball in 2008 and 2009.  He's currently being converted into a relief pitcher, after being drafted as a SS.   Regardless of what becomes of Bush's career, Chilcott is in truly exclusive company.

The Mets didn't have to wait long to make their next #1 pick, as only two years later, in 1968 they would select SS Tim Foli out of Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, CA.  Foli would be in the majors by 1970, but would only play 102 games for the Mets before being traded to the Expos as part of the Rusty Staub trade.  Foli would stick around in the major leagues for 16 years as one of the worst offensive players of his generation, with a career OPS+ of 64(!!!!), never once in a season compiling an OPS+ of greater than 83.  It would be 12 years before the Mets would pick first again, and that, as mentioned before, would be Strawberry in the 1980 draft.

After Strawberry came Shawn Abner with the 1st pick in the 1984 draft.  Abner, a high school OF from Pennsylvania would never play a single game for the Mets, traded before the 1987 season with Kevin Mitchell and other anonymous minor leaguers as part of the deal that brought Kevin McReynolds from the Padres.  Abner only played 392 games in his major league career, hitting .227 in 902 at bats with a career OPS of .591.  Awesome.

With the first pick in the 1994 draft, the Mets finally went the pitching route and selected Paul Wilson from Florida State University.  Wilson made his big league debut with the Mets on April 4, 1996, and made 26 starts that year, going 5-12 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.    He was back in the minors to start the 1997 season, and he would never throw another pitch for the major league club.  Wilson was finally traded by the Mets on July 28, 2000, sent to the Tampa Bay Rays with Jason Tyner for Bubba Trammell and Rick White.  Wilson would later find himself with the Reds, going 11-6 in 2004.  However, he injured his shoulder early in 2005, and he would never pitch in the major leagues again.  For his career, he made 153 starts, going 40-58 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.

Fourteen other picks in Met history (not including Harvey this year) have come in the top 10.   Three of those were Jon Matlack (#4-1967), Dwight Gooden (#5-1982), and Mike Pelfrey (#9-2005).   Matlack would win the NL Rookie of the Year in 1972 with a 15-10 record and a 2.32 ERA (he'd also give up Roberto Clemente's 3000th and final hit that year).  He was a key success in the Mets 1973 NL Championship season, going 5-1 down the stretch to help the Mets lock up the division, although he would suffer tough losses in games 1 and 7 of the World Series as the Mets hearts' were broken by Reggie Jackson and the A's.  Gooden needs no fill in here, as there is perhaps no greater example in baseball history of a player flaming out and letting drugs and alcohol push what could have been one of the all time great careers by the wayside.  We've talked enough about Pelfrey this year, so let's look at the rest.

  • Les Rohr, P (#2 in 1965) - 6 major league games, out of baseball at 24.
  • Randy Sterling, P (#4 in 1969) - 9.1 IP in the major leagues, out of baseball at 25.
  • Butch Benton, C (#6 in 1975) - 25 AB's for the Mets over two years, traded to the Cubs for "future considerations", which were apparently never fulfilled.  Of note was that the Cubs would later trade him to the Expos for a player by the name of Jerry Manuel.  Bust.
  • Hubie Brooks, OF/SS (#3 in 1978) - Hubie is one of the better players the Mets ever drafted, though his two All Star appearances would both come with the Montreal Expos.  Brooks was traded just as he was entering his peak as one of the four players the Mets dealt to the Expos for Gary Carter, who would of course be instrumental in the 1986 title.  Tough to call him a bust, but worth noting that his best years came elsewhere.
  • Tim Leary, P (#2 in 1979) - appeared in 23 games for the Mets between 1980 and 1984 for the Mets, going 4-4.  Was part of a 4 player deal in 1985 which netted the Mets Frank Wills, who would never play for any part of the Mets organization.  In Leary's best year, he would go 17-11 with a 2.91 ERA for the 1988 Dodgers team that would shock the Mets in the NLCS and go on to win the World Series.  In Mets terms, an utter failure of a pick.
  • Terry Blocker, CF (#4 in 1981) - 1 hit in 15 at bats for the Mets, traded in 1987 to the Braves for a player to be named later.  Hit .205 in 244 career at bats, out of the majors at 29.  Sick.
  • Eddie Williams, 3B (#4 in 1983) - Never played a major league game for the Mets, traded in 1984 with two other players to the Indians fro Bruce Berenyi.  Williams bounced around to 6 teams over 10 major league seasons, but was never a starter for any prolonged stretch.
  • Preston Wilson, SS (#9 in 1992) - Son of the beloved Mookie, Wilson only had 20 major league at bats with the Mets after toiling in their minor league system for 5 years.  Still, those 20 at bats were enough to convince the fire selling Florida Marlins to take him as the centerpiece of the May 1998 deal that brought Mike Piazza to the Mets.  While Wilson had a 30-30 season in 2000 with the Marlins, and led the NL in RBI in 2003 for Colorado, injuries and his massive strikeout numbers made him a journeyman by 2005, and he spent 2009 trying to crack back into pro ball by playing for the Long Island Ducks.
  • Kirk Presley, P (#8 in 1993) - Probably better known for being Elvis' third cousin, Kirk Presley was drafted out of Tupelo High School in Mississippi, and would never pitch in the major leagues.  Arm injuries forced him to retire in 1998, out of baseball at 23.
  • Geoff Goetz, P (#6 in 1997) - another Mets top 10 pick that would never play in the major leagues, Goetz's claim to fame is that he was a part of the Piazza deal alongside of Wilson.
  • Philip Humber (#3 in 2004) - Humber was one of the "Big Three" coming out of Rice in 2004, alongside Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend.  He pitched in 5 games for the Mets over two years, and was famously tabbed to make his first big league start on September 26, 2007 with the Mets on the verge of losing their division lead to the Phillies.  Humber was promptly rocked by the Nationals for 5 ER in four innings, and well, we know where this story goes.   On the good side, he was a part of the trade that brought Johan Santana to the Mets, so there's that.  Humber was released by the Twins after last season, and is currently working in the Royals organization as a starter at AAA Omaha.
It would be only fair to say that in recent years, the Mets first round success has been off the charts:  David Wright was a sandwich pick in 2001, Scott Kazmir in 2002 at #16, Big Pelf at #9 in 2005, and most recently, Ike Davis at #18 in 2008.  However, those seem to be mere outliers in a continued pattern of draft ineptitude.  If Matt Harvey is to join the list above of Met draft flops, it will be just another reason why being a Met fan sucks.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Game #63 (35-28) - Let's Go to the Brooms!

With today's 11-4 victory, the Mets completed their first road sweep since September of 2008, outscoring the Orioles 19-6 in the three games.  For the first time in a while, the Mets are doing what they should be doing; jumping all over the bad teams that they should be beating, as opposed to playing down to their competition.  It's hard for me to hate this team when they're doing their jobs so well.  Of course, after this tease and winning 8 of their last 9, they'll be sure to let us down in Cleveland starting on Tuesday, right?  Here's some notes on today's game.
  • Today was the 5th straight game with a leadoff hit for Reyes.  That's his longest such streak since 2006.  He's definitely look more comfortable at the plate, and while he took a few bad swings today, he's certainly getting closer to his peak 2006-2008 form over the last 10 games.
  • There's been talk about the Mets pursuing Millwood at the deadline.  If anyone that watched him today still thinks that's a good idea, please get your head checked.  I don't buy as much into pitchers needing to be on a competitive team to be motivated.  Millwood's a professional, he's been in the majors for 14 years - he knows his job is to take that mound every 5th day and get outs, and he's simply not getting it done this year.  His average fastball velocity is under 90 for the first time in his career, and the result has been the highest HR/9 rate of his career.  While he'd be worth taking a flier on for virtually free, I would hate to see the Mets give up a Dillon Gee or Brad Holt to get him.
  • Despite Jerry sitting Carter yesterday after his Friday homer, he responded tdayt with a 3 run HR in the first inning.  With Carter swinging a good bat, it's hard to see where Tatis really fits in with this team, especially since Carter can play 1B as well.  Tatis has been overmatched at the plate this year, and while that may be due to the lack of at-bats, he's also just not hitting the ball hard.  While Tatis' BABIP is a meager .229 (vs his career number of .308), it's hard to blame that on bad luck, as his line drive percentage of 21.5% is just in line with his career rate of 21.3.  What jumps out for Fernando is his whopping 13.3% infield fly ball rate, almost double his career number.   With Carter showing the pop Tatis once displayed, it's hard for me to see how Manuel can justify trotting Fernando out there at Carter's expense.
  • Congrats to Jesus Feliciano on his first major league hit after 1271 games in the minor leagues.  That said, he still doesn't belong in the majors.   He doesn't play good defense, he has no pop, and he doesn't have the speed to be a true singles hitter.  If the Mets had to call up a career minor leaguer to take some AB's, give me Mike Hessman and his 329 career minor league HR's.  He could be this year's Jack Cust.  If you're going to play Feliciano in CF, why not have Kirk Nieuwenhuis come down from Binghamton for a cup of coffee?  Nieuwenhuis definitely needs some seasoning, as he's terrible at pitch recognition, but he's only 22, and unlike Feliciano, has a chance to help the Mets beyond this short stretch.
  • Not a good day for Pelfrey today - he had a lot of trouble with his location, similar to Santana's problems on Thursday with the Padres.  However, despite this being his worst outing since his Derby day drubbing in Philly, Big Pelf hung tough and was able to give the Mets 6 innings of 3 run ball.  Yes, it came against a completely inept lineup, but I'll take this next step in the continuing maturity of Pelfrey.  In years past, when he struggled with location like he did today, he would throw away his game plan and just throw his fastball every pitch, making a bad situation worse.  Today, he stuck with what he wanted to do, and continued mixing his pitches well, even though his splitter was a little flat, and his fastball showed little sink and rarely broke 90.  It may have been the cushion of the 5-0 lead to start the game, but I'd like to think it's a sign that Pelf has learned to trust his approach.  He's now 9-1 on the year, the fastest Met to 9 wins since Bobby Jones won #9 on May 28, 1997.  How's that for research?  
  • It would be wrong for me to overlook the big game from Jason Bay today.  Bay was 4-4 today with 4 runs scored and a solo HR, breaking out of his 1 for 25 slump in a big way.  Maybe he'll keep in going in Cleveland against his former Sox teammate Masterson.  Until then, I'm not saying anything good about him.  He'll need about 30 more of these games to NOT be insanely overpaid, ok?
  • Monster day for David Wright, with another HR against a righty.  I'm loving his better approach at the plate these days, as he's being much more selective on pitches low and away, and he's seeing that pay off in declining strikeout totals.  Good to have the old Wright back, hopefully he can stay for a while.
The Mets will look to keep the hot streak alive on Tuesday night in Cleveland with Johan Santana taking on Justin Masterson.  Be sure to tune in tomorrow for an interesting op-ed piece on an oft-overlooked reason why being a Met fan sucks.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Game #62 (34-28) - Back to Back Road Wins!!!!

Two major firsts tonight for the Mets - 6 games over .500 for the first time this year, and a 2nd straight road win for the first time since, wait for it, July 26th of last year in Houston.  They'll be going for their first three game road sweep since September 1-3, 2008 tomorrow at 1:35 PM when Mike Pelfrey takes the hill against Kevin Millwood at Camden Yards.  Pelfrey, as you know, has been lights out this year, while Millwood has lost three straight starts while posting a 7.85 ERA.    Now, for some brief notes on tonight.
  • Jose Reyes' leadoff HR was the 15th of his career, and the first time he has lead off the game with a HR since September 19, 2008 against Jo-Jo Reyes of the Braves.   That gives Jose 3 extra base hits in his last 5 games, a little bit more like the Jose we used to know and love.  Could this be a sign that he's starting to come back to life?  
  • Despite the win tonight, Takahashi continues to be a conundrum.  He's just not getting guys to swing at anything outside the zone, and batters are just waiting for him to throw his fastball over the plate and getting good swings on him; this isn't helped by him seeming to start off every hitter with a straight fastball.  His stuff just isn't good enough for him to be a successful starter at the major league level long term.  He did come through with 7 solid innings tonight, but, it was against an all-time bad team in the O's.  Good teams are going to realize his very predictable patterns and eat him alive.
  • Ruben Tejada has really started to grow into a solid defensive second baseman.  He's really adept at turning the double play now.  He also made an INCREDIBLE play going to his right on an Adam Jones grounder up the middle to start the bottom of the 7th.  I feel very strongly that right now Tejada needs to be playing every day.  His bat will come along, and he's already a vastly superior defender to Cora and Castillo.
  • The crowd in Baltimore tonight had to be 75% Met fans.  Asked someone at the game how many Met fans there were and he replied "All of them."  Only thing I can compare it to would be the turnout of Yankee fans for games in Tampa pre-2008.  Crazy.
  • In a shocking turn of events, Jason Bay was hitless again today, and is now 1 for his last 25.  To be fair, he did hit two balls very well, only to have Orioles Gold Glove CF Adam Jones track them down.  Guess money can't buy luck... not even $66M.
  • Francoeur's homer leading off the 8th was his first of the year against a lefty.  Fairly surprising as Frenchy has hit a whopping .352 against lefties since the start of the 2009 season.  
  • Mets starters are not 12-3 with a 2.41 ERA in their last 23 starts.    The Mets have gone 15-8 in those games.    Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider that three of those starts were two Takahashi stinkers, and the Nieve disaster in Milwaukee.  
Outside of the world of the Mets, it was great to see the US escape with a draw against a vastly more talented England side.  Detractors will point to Dempsey's equalizer being no more than a goalie mistake, but on the flip side, the Americans were just as unlucky when Altidore's chance in the second half caromed off the inside of the post and somehow didn't find a way home.  The draw puts the American side in a position to control their own destiny; winning the group would likely keep them from matching up with the Germans in the round of 16.   

In today's other matches, Argentina was steady in their 1-0 win over a surprisingly competitive Nigeria side, although the Argentines had numerous near misses; the kind that if they start to convert, they will be tough to stop.  Watching Messi out there, it's hard to imagine how anyone still thinks Ronaldo is the best player in the world.  Korea looked very strong as well, doing a fantastic job of shutting down the Greek longball attack, and consistently frustrating the Greek effort.  With the 2-0 win, Korea will need an epic collapse to fail to advance from the group stage.  Til tomorrow...

Game #61 (33-28) - Robert Allan is on Fire

I didn't get to watch last night's game in full, so just a couple of notes from the boxscore, as the Mets got a rare road win, albeit against the worst team in baseball.

  • Another successful start for R.A. Dickey, his fourth straight start with a W.  Once again he posted an above average strand rate, which continues to be the key to his success.   After last night, Dickey's strand rate of 82.9% is 7th in the major leagues (interestingly, Pelfrey is 8th with 82.4%); only one player finished with a higher rate in 2009 over the full season.  Look for Dickey's ERA to get closer to his 3.91 xFIP in the next month.
  • David Wright showed that perhaps his struggles in Thursday's doubleheader were an aberration, going 3-4 with 2 RBI.  Wright is now hitting .462 in his last 12 games.  While most of that damage has been done against lefties, he has shown flashes of his former competence against righties.  I'm not getting my hopes up just yet, but if Wright can make some adjustments there, this team might be able to make some noise in the NL East.
  • Congrats to Chris Carter on his first major league home run.  Carter's power numbers have always been borderline elite at the minor league level, and while I personally don't think he has potential to be a well rounded hitter, it would be great if he could add some pop to the tune of a homer ever 20 AB's or so.  His pitch selection leaves something to be desired, as you can read more about here, in a great piece from Amazin' Avenue.
  • Jason Bay went for another 0-fer yesterday and he's now 1 for his last 21.  Bay's OPS still sits at a measly .780, and he looks on track to repeat his miserable 2007 performance with the Pirates, although he hasn't been as bad as that quite yet.  His 2007 WAR was an ugly -0.7, while this year he's managed a 1.0.  Were his WAR converted to dollars for free agency, Bay would be worth around $3.6M - quite a far cry from his actual salary, and an even bigger differential from his $22.6M value from last year.  Did somebody say Jeromy Burnitz?
  • To give you an idea of just how bad the Orioles are, they are currently on pace to finish the season 45-117.  The only times this century a team lost 117 games or more were the 1916 Philadelphia A's, who managed the feat in 154 games, and the 2003 Tigers, who finished 43-119.  Too bad there's no Strasburg or Bryce Harper in the 2011 draft.
The Mets will look to win their 7th game in the last 8 tonight in Baltimore, with Hisanori Takahashi taking the hill against 23 year old Orioles lefty Brian Matuz.  If the Mets find a way to lose this one, trust me, I'll have a lot more reasons tomorrow about why being a met fan sucks.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Game #60 (32-28) - Dare I say Jon Niese is Legit?

Wow, a hell of a performance for Jon Niese.  Tough to get a W in the 2nd game of the doubleheader after being thoroughly dominated in the 2nd half, tougher when you're starting career minor leaguers like Jesus Feliciano and Jesus Feliciano as your #2 and cleanup hitters.  Niese was completely masterful tonight, a 3rd inning leadoff double from Adrien Brody/Chris Denorfia the only preventing him from being the fourth pitcher this year with a perfect game.  This was the 24th complete game 1 hitter thrown by a Mets pitcher, and the first since (believe it or not) Aaron Heilman against the Marlins in 2005.  Niese did an incredible job tonight mixing his pitches, and getting chase swings from the Padres on 2 strike counts.  Easily the best performance of his young career, and a great way to follow up Monday's stellar showing against the Marlins.  If he makes a few more starts like this, well, he might have made a believer out of even me.

As always, here's some other notes from tonight's game.


  • I'm not going to judge Jesus Feliciano from 5 at bats.  That said, based on the pitch selection he's showed in his first five major league at-bats it would appear there was a good reason he's been in the minor leagues for 13 years.  I don't expect him to be long for the major leagues.
  • Four strikeouts today from Wright against righties today.  Atta boy David, way to keep that 40 percent strikeout rate vs. righties going strong into June.  Seriously, on a better team, he'd be borderline platoonable against righties.  Think a reverse Curtis Granderson at this point.
  • I have to admit that Ruben Tejada looks completely overmatched at the plate.  That said, he plays a fantastic second base, and he helps to stand in the way of Alex Cora kicking in the option for next year.  As much as he's struggling, he's also still a better player than Cora, and there's no reason not to let him develop as long as he's the team's best option at 2B.  He's only 20, and he's continually hit right around .300 in the minors.  Considering the Mets have no better long term answer at second right now, and the free agent market at the position is thin, I'd like to see Tejada able to get comfortable at the major league level; at the very worst he can contribute out of the 8 hole next year, and at best, he could show the .300 bat he had in the minors by late summer.
  • Worth noting that the Mets have now been involved in 3 triple plays in their past 100 games.  I don't have the desire to check on this, but I'd be willing to bet that's some kind of record.  They've also been involved in 2 in the last three weeks.  If I had an intern, we'd have Elias on the phone to figure this out right now.
  • Was flipping between this and the fantastic duel between Halladay and Josh Johnson in Citizen's Bank Park.  Those two are flat out ridiculous.  It was a hell of a night for pitching in the NL East.
  • Random fun fact.  On Tuesday, Mike Stanton became the youngest player since 1979 to have 3 hits in his major league debut.  The younger player who had 3 hits in his May 21, 1979 debut?  Former NBA All-Satr and current Celtics GM Danny Ainge, who went 3 for 4 with the Blue Jays against the Indians at the age of 20 years and 65 days.  Drop THAT knowledge on your co-workers tomorrow.  I'll allow it.
  • Make sure to tune in tomorrow at 10 AM on ESPN for the start of the World Cup.  South Africa takes on Mexico - companies around the world will see a massive spike in off-site meetings at the same time.  Don't sleep on South Africa - four of the last five host nations have made the final four. 
Not much else tonight - it's hard to find negatives when the starting pitcher throws a 1 hitter and retires 21 in a row.  I know, trust me, it pained me to write that.  Don't worry, I'm sure I'll be back tomorrow with some more reasons why being a met fan sucks!

This is a MUST SEE

Thanks to a reader for the link...

http://boston.barstoolsports.com/random-thoughts/must-watch-wally-backman-gets-ejected-and-unloads-a-giant-can-of-awesomess/

I'm still not sure Wally would make a good MLB manager, but, man, this would be fun to watch happen at Citi Field.

Game #59 - Santana vs Latos... Our first Running Diary

The lineups are in - nothing really special to report here, other than Cora in the 8 hole for the Mets playing 2nd base.  I find it worth mentioning that he's probably the worst offensive player in the National League, so he's got that going for him, which is nice.  Tune back in around 30 minutes for the start of the running diary...

Top 1st - Not a good sign when Johan is throwing 85-87 on his fastball to the first batter of the game.  A worse sign when Eckstein gets around an inside fastball and hits in to the way for a long out.  Hope Johan's just loosening up after three days of extra rest.  Velocity creeps closer to 90 to Headley, who pops a weak fly to center for the 2nd out.  Pagan started back on it, but was able to recover for the easy out.  Adrian Gonzalez makes sure that this won't be the game where the Mets throw their first no hitter with a bloop single to left on a high 3-2 changeup.  No worries though, as Santana gets the worst cleanup hitter in the major leagues to fly out weakly to right.  Seriously, anytime you're feeling really down about the Mets, keep in mind that Scott effin' Hairston is the Padres cleanup hitter.  Wow.  Spotty half inning location wise for Johan, but let's see if the Mets can get him a lead to help him find his comfort zone.

Bot 1st - The tattoos on Mat Latos' left forearm are really terrible.  Anyway, Reyes leads off with an infield single to third.  Headley had to play in to defend against the drag bunt and the ball went right over his head.  A perfect Reyes hit.   Tough strikeout for Pagan - it definitely seemed that Latos' zone is a little bigger than what Johan was working with.  We'll see how that develops.  Bay flys lazily to right center for out #2.   Pretty sure Latos made more throws to first than pitches in that inning, which ended with Ike striking out meekly on a strong curveball.  The game sure is slower with Reyes on 1st.

Top 2nd - Hundley gets ahead 3-0 only to take a strike and then ground weakly to Reyes.  Every time I see this Hundley kid it brings back fond memories of Todd Hundley.  Remember 1996 and his chase of the Mets HR record?  Anyway, I digress - the other Hairston is out on a routine grounder to Reyes.  Chris Denorfia follows with a groundout up the middle that Cora gets to.  Three quick outs for Johan - strangely all 3 in the first on flyouts, and all 3 in the second on groundouts to the middle infield.

Bot 2nd - Wright leads off with a walk after fouling off a good pitch on 3-2.  I was sure the AB was jinxed when Gary pointed out that he had gone 4 straight games without a strikeout.  Francoeur puts a good swing on one, but it dies in right field for the first out.  It's Cora time baby!  Cora wastes a 3-0 count by chasing a breaking ball on 3-2 and flying out to right.  The ball went about 220 feet though, so Alex should feel good about showing off his pop.  Henry Blanco would be great portraying a character in a Tarantino movie.   AND BAM!!!!! It's 2-0 Mets!  Blanco with a terrific at bat, fights off three tough pitches, and on the 10th pitch takes Latos deep to left.   Santana goes down swinging, but he'll take the mound in the 3rd with the biggest lead he's had in his last 4 starts.  (How sad is that tidbit?)

Top 3rd - Tony Gwynn Jr. ground out to second.  He's really terrible.  Latos pops out to shallow right, but the at bat is at least made interesting by the attempt by a 6' 6" pitcher to drag bunt with no one on.  Eckstein singles between Wright and Reyes, followed by Headley hitting a screaming liner right at Reyes that Jose is able to snag just before it hits the ground to end the top of the 3rd.

Bot 3rd - Reyes grounds out to short.  The Mets however are doing a good job at prolonging at-bats, even when they result in outs.  Of course, as soon as I say that, Pagan strikes out on 4 pitches, for Latos' 4th K of the game, the second for Angel.  Latos is hitting 96 on the gun now, and you have to wonder how much the Mets will be able to add to this 2-0 lead.  Bay flies out to right to give Latos his first 1-2-3 inning.  Jason the Overpaid is now 1 for his last 17.  Solid.

Top 4th - Great AB for Adrian Gonzalez, who lines the 8th pitch to center for his second hit of the day, and the first time Johan has allowed the leadoff man to reach base today.   Santana follows with his first walk of the day to Hairston #1, and the Pads have runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out.  Terrible situation for Johan, as he has Hundley 0-2 and throws balls on 4 of the next 5 pitches to walk the bases loaded.  Johan does NOT have his A game again today, and his location is terrible.  Hairston Jr. hits a sac fly to center to end Santana's scoreless streak at 18 straight innings, and it's now 2-1 Mets.  Cora makes a great turn at 2B on Denorfia's grounder to third, and the 5-4-3 double play ends the inning and the Mets are able to escape with minimal damage.

Bot 4th - Ike Davis starts off the inning with a groundout to short.  Ike's been really hit or miss the last few weeks, but I guess that's to be expected from a young guy.  Just wish he wasn't going through these ups and downs in the cleanup slot.  There we go!  Wright strikes out YET AGAIN on an up and away fastball.  I don't even think I could keep track of how many times he's done that this year.  I don't think I've seen him make contact on a high fastball yet.  Francoeur takes strike 3 looking, and Latos is just dominating the Mets right now.  That's 6 K's through 4, and 7 Mets in a row have failed to reach base.  Hopefully Johan will be better in the 5th against the bottom of the lineup.

Top 5th - I'm still furious from home bad Wright looks chasing high fastballs.  This habit has really developed over the last year and a half, and it basically makes him an automatic out for any right hander with a strong fastball.  Makes me sick.  I do have to say that it seems that Santana is getting squeezed on the close ones, but I can't say I blame the ump as Santana has missed TERRIBLY on about half of his pitches.  Gwynn Jr. with the leadoff walk, and I'm sure Latos will be looking to lay down the sac bunt.  Latos does a terrible job and strikes out bunting foul to give Santana his first K of the day.  That was ugly.  Watching David Eckstein dry hump the air every time he steps into the box makes me want to punch him in the face even more.  Is his humping gritty and hustling too?  The pest doubles to left to tie the game.  Santana is just not on his game today - he had Eckstein down 1-2, pushed it to a full count, and now allows the game-tying double.   Headley pops up to left for the 2nd out, keeping Mr. Grit on second.  A poor decision from Jerry to pitch to Gonzalez in my opinion leads to Gonzalez hitting the first pitch to right for his third hit of the day, and the Pads now have a 3-2 lead.  I really don't understand pitching to Gonzalez there, one of the best hitters in the game, when you have Scott Hairston on deck, especially with the way Latos is pitching.  Drives me crazy.  Hairston grounds out to Wright, and the Mets will try to take another shot at the big Padres righty in the 5th.

Bot 5th - No one can tell me that pitching to Gonzalez there was the right decision.  The opposing pitcher is dominating your lineup, it's a tie game, Gonzalez has two straight hits against Santana, and the guy on deck is hitting .222.  Terrible.  Alex "Wonderboy" Cora looks at three straight strikes and sits down.  He's seriously below replacement level for AAA at this point.  Blanco strikes out on a breaking ball for the 9th straight Met retired by Latos, and that's now 8K's, and 4 in a row, for the Padres' righty.  Johan at least puts the ball in play with a lazy fly to left, but it's an easy play, and the Mets go down in order for the third inning in a row.  Latos needed 46 pitches to get through the first two innings, but has needed only 39 in the last three.  This game can't end soon enough right now.

Top 6th -  Hundley leads off the top of the 6th by smoking a lined single to center.  It's time to get someone up in the pen.  Hairston Jr. goes first pitch swinging and just gets under one to fly out to Bay in left.  And as soon as I call for the pen, Santana gets Denorfia to swing at the first pitch as well, and he grounds to Cora for an easy double play.  Maybe the Mets will get a runner on base in the bottom of the 6th.

Bot 6th - Reyes flies out to shallow center.  He's pressing so hard right now I'm surprised the bat doesn't snap in his hands.  Pagan at the plate as the rain starts to fall a little at Citi Field, maybe this can snap the spell Latos has the Mets under.  Pagan gets 8 pitches out of Latos, but hits a soft liner to short for the 2nd out of the inning.  12 Mets in a row retired by Latos, I'd put good money on Bay not breaking that little streak.  Bay flies out to center on 4 pitchers, and that's 13 Mets in a row for Latos.  Bay is now 1 for his last 18, and worth every penny.  Kill me please.

Top 7th - Tony Gwynn Jr. drops a perfect bunt up the 3rd base line to reach on a single.  That's 4 straight innings that Santana has allowed the leadoff man to reach.  For some reason, Bud Black pulls Latos after 99 pitches and 13 straight retired.  Hope returns for the Mets.  Luckily the pinch hitter Zawadzki grounds into a 5-4-3 double play.  Latos probably couldn't have done that himself.  That brings up Eckstein for some more dry humping.  The grittiest no talent man in baseball draws a walk, since right now Johan couldn't find the strike zone with a map, and the Padres have a runner on with two out.  The walk to the player with the least offensive talent in the game leads to a grooved fastball that Headley drives to deep right and scores Eckstein.  4-2 Padres.  With their bullpen, this game feels over.  It says something about how bad the Padres are that Johan could pitch this badly today and only allow four runs.  He's done for the day after 6 and 2/3.  Feliciano comes in and strikes out Gonzalez to end the inning.  Johan's final line is 6.2IP, 8H, 4 ER, 4 BB, and a measly 1K on 108 pitches.  That line doesn't really do justice to how much he struggled to find it today.  Let's see if the Mets can take him off the losing side against the terrific Padres 'pen.

Bot 7th - Gregerson comes on for the Padres, which is great cause he's pretty much unhittable.  See ya at 7.  He did give up a run 12 outings ago though, so there's hope.  Like clockwork, Ike strikes out on a breaking ball.  He's good at that.  Wright just struck out on 3 pitches, which shouldn't be surprising, considering Gregerson is right handed.  The called 3rd strike was clearly outside, but Reynolds has been calling that one all day.  Francoeur provides a terrible at bat, striking out on a 3-2 pitch that never looked remotely close.  I love Frenchy as much as the next guy, but his inability to take a walk makes him such a huge liability late in games, especially when the Mets are behind.  16 Mets in a row have come up without reaching base, and 11 K's for the Padres now.

Top 8th - Jenrry "Why am I not in the minor leagues working on being a starter" Mejia comes out for the 8th.  Scott Hairston hits a tailing liner to right center, and he's on with a single.  That's 5 straight innings now with the leadoff man on for the Padres.  You just cannot win baseball games falling behind 2-0 to every leadoff hitter and then putting them on.  WOW!  David Wright with a terrific play at third, and Cora with a solid turn at second for the 3rd 5-4-3 double play of the day for the Mets.  They've been amazing in the field today, and it's kept them in the game.  Mejia drilles Hairston Jr in the back with a 97 MPH fastball.  Interesting considering Henry Blanco was set up outside.  Can someone please talk some sense into Omar and let this kid get stretched out as a starter?  Chris Denorfia looks kind of like Adrien Brody.  That's not a good thing.  He hits a sharp grounder to Wright, who pulls a Roger Dorn and ole's the ball instead of getting in front of it, and now there are runners on 1st and 2nd.  At least he's pretty.  Tony "I hit like my Dad did when he was 6" Gwynn Jr grounds out to Reyes to end the inning.  Do you think that if you got Tony Sr. really stoned, he could eat Tony Jr whole in one sitting?  I lean towards yes.

Bot 8th - Handsome Mike Adams comes out for the bottom of the 8th, and he feels like a lottery winner when he sees the first "hitter" he'll face is Alex Cora.  Cora grounds out to first, but he can take pride in knowing that he got the ball almost halfway into the OF earlier today on a fly out.  Jesus Feliciano comes  to the plate after 13 years in the minors, and looks completely foolish on 3 pitches and chases a high 0-2 fastball to strike out.  Next.  Oh, goody, next up is Feliciano's counterpart on the "career minor leaguers no one else in basbeall wants" squad, Chris Carter.   Carter becomes the 19th straight Met to take a seat on a fly ball to right.  Yawn.

Top 9th - The Mets will bring in Fernando Nieve for the top of the 9th and Barajas comes on to catch.  Nieve's thrown once in the last 12 days, so I have a good feeling about this one.  Will Venable is the pinch hitter in the 9 hole.  Venable pops out to first base, and for the first time since the 3rd inning, the Padres do not have the leadoff man on.  I can hear the champagne corks from Manhattan.  Eckstein is up, so I'm just going to change the channel before I lose my lunch.  Wright makes a diving stab on Eckstein's grounder, and despite tremendous hustle from mini-me, he's out at 1st.  Headley grounds out to Cora to end the inning, and the Mets have their first 1-2-3 inning since the 3rd.  The Mets will now have the top of the lineup bat for one last chance against Heath Bell.


Bot 9th - Heath Bell comes on, and hopefully the Mets will keep up the McDonalds advertisements they had behind the plate during Headley's at bat to distract his fat ass.  It may be their only hope.  Great stat from Gary as Reyes steps to the plate, via Elias Sports Bureau.  Of the 25 players on the roster of the 2003 Mets the day Reyes came up 7 years ago, only Reyes, Ty Wiggington, and Pedro Feliciano are still in the majors.  Those were some glory days.  Reyes grounds out to third and that's 20 Mets in row.  This is fun.  Pagan flies out to shallow right, and the Mets are down to their final out.  Considering Jason Bay is at the plate, this should only be another 30 seconds or so.  Bay flies out to right field, and the game is over.  22 straight Mets retired to end the game.  Pathetic.

An ugly day at Citi mars the landmark debut of our first ever running diary, as the Mets are limited to a season low 2 hits, and Santana gives one of his worst performances of the year.  Rest assured, I'll be back tonight with some thoughts on the 2nd half of this doubleheader, which we can only hope will net a better result.  It takes a special type of performance to have 22 straight players fail to reach base, and that, my friends, is why being a Met fan sucks.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Game #58 (31-27) - Home is Where the Winning Is

Another game at Citi Field, another win for Jerry and Co.  That's 23-9 on the year now and the Mets keep pace with the Phillies in pursuit of the Braves.  I really don't understand this team - at home, they're the best team in baseball; on the road, they've been the 1962 Mets.  What can I say though, when they're at home, it's hard to find a lot to complain about.  As always, here's some thoughts on tonight's game - and I wasn't able to find too much to complain about.

  • The evolution of Mike Pelfrey seems to be the real deal.  Big Pelf has now given up 2 ER or less in 8 of 12 starts this year, and has given the Mets at least 7 innings in 7 of the 12.  His ERA for the year now stands at 2.23, and his WHIP at 1.17.  Most importantly he has a 58/28 K/BB rate, compared to the 107/66 he posted last year.   It would seem that the addition of the split-finger has really pushed Pelf over the top, and he's been one of the NL's best pitchers this year.  He's throwing the splitter around 18 percent of the time, and as a result, his reliance on the fastball has dramatically decreased. In 2008, Pelf threw fastballs a whopping 81.2% of the time; after tonight, that number hovers right around 65%.  Pelfrey has definitely been the beneficiary of some good luck, as evidenced by his 83% strand rate and a BABIP that is around 30 points off from his career average.  Still, his FIP is at 3.28, which, while a large deviation from his realized ERA, suggests that even the bumps in the road will keep him performing like the solid #2 that the Mets need him to be.
  • Ike Davis' walk off had to be a 450 foot bomb, and good for Ike.  He continues to show flashes of brilliance mixed in with some terrible at-bats, but the future looks bright for him.  I still don't think he should be hitting in the cleanup spot - I understand what Manuel is trying to do, but I would really rather see Bay or Wright in that slot.  Speaking of....
  • Terrible game for Jason Bay.  0 for 5 with 3 K's, and he rushed into a weak ground out with Pagan on 3rd in the bottom of the 10th.  He definitely appears to be pressing at times, which is to be expected with his lack of power, as I discussed last week.   He doesn't seem to have a consistent approach from game to game.  One day he'll look like he's got it all figured out and go 3-4, and then he'll have a game like tonight where he looks like a slumping rookie.  I can't say I expected Bay to live up to his terrible contract, but I'm hoping for a little bit more than this.  His lack of power continues to be extremely frustrating.
  • It would be hypocritical of me to not point out how good K-Rod looked tonight.  He looked like the K-Rod of old, and was dominant in his inning of work.
  • On the same token, nice to see Reyes with a homer - what wasn't nice was watching him stare the ball down the whole way.  You're not Manny Ramirez, Jose.  You don't hit the ball far enough to assume a HR.  Unacceptable.
Around baseball, all I can say about Stephen Strasburg is wow.  He truly looked incredible tonight, and it's going to be fun to watch him.  He has incredible command of 4 pitches, and can throw any of them in any count; as he matures as a pitcher, he has the potential to develop into 1997-2002 Pedro.  His raw stuff is THAT good.  On the offensive side,  Mike Stanton went 3-5 in his debut, including 2 infield hits.  He's HUGE for 20 years old, and if he can limit the strikeouts he could be a force to be reckoned with in the NL East for as long as the Marlins can keep him from being bought by the Yankees.  Between him, Jason Heyward, and Strasburg, they are sure to provide many reasons in the coming years for why being a met fan sucks.

Some Random Notes...

With the day off yesterday, not much to bitch about.  Just kidding.  Here's some draft and prospect related thoughts.


  • Kolbrin Vitek.  Remember that name.  He's the player who was taken 20th overall by the Red Sox with the compensation pick they received for Billy Wagner.  Remember, the Mets traded Wagner late last August for two completely worthless prospects from the Red Sox.  Why?  To save the $3.5M left on Wagner's contract for 2009, the $1M buyout for 2010, and the X amount of dollars to pay the next first round pick.  To save about $6M the Mets gave away Wagner and a first round pick.  So let's see how Vitek, and the players taken immediately after him, turn out the next few years.
  • I find it also worth noting that Wagner is 4-0 with 9 saves, a 1.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 35 K's in 22.1 IP.  Would you rather have him or K-Rod as the Met's closer?  Tough call.
  • Matt Harvey.  Not really sure what to make of him.  By now you're all familiar with his story - top high school prospect out of Fitch High School in Connecticut in 2007, drafted in the 3rd round by the Angels, and skipped the minors for some seasoning at UNC.  After a solid freshman year, he imploded in his sophomore year as control issues ballooned his ERA to 5.40.  He made a solid bounce back in 2010, going 8-3 with a 3.09 ERA and a 102/35 K/BB rate in 96 innings.  He's got a plus fastball sitting at around 92-94 with readings as high as 98 MPH, as well as a changeup with potential to be above average.  His curveball was considered a plus pitch coming out of high school, but he struggled with his feel for it at UNC.  Most importantly, he's got an AWESOME moustache.  
  • In today's 3rd round, the Mets drafted C Blake Forsythe (Tennessee), who could be a good buy low candidate after a senior year in which he struggled and scouts say he was pressing trying to improve his draft stock.  Despite that, he hit .286 and was named all-SEC First Team.  He was followed in the 4th round by Stephen Strasburg's teammate at San Diego State, OF Cory Vaughn, who hit .378 for the Aztecs this year.  Beyond that, I stopped paying attention.
  • Find it worth noting that with the debuts of Strasburg and Mike Stanton tonight, the three top prospects in (arguably) the last 5 years will all be playing baseball in the NL East - Jason Heyward being the other.  Naturally, none of them play for the Mets.  Yet another reason why being a met fan sucks.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Game #57 (30-27) - Japan is NOT good to the Mets

It's hard to find much to complain about after a home sweep of a major division rival, especially with a comeback from a 5-0 lead, but don't worry, that's what I'm here for.  The principal issue is that right now, the Japanese connection has not been kind to the Mets.  This is not something altogether new.  The Mets have had more Japanese players than any other team in the majors (nine), and none of them have been successful.    You can read more about this is in David Waldstein's December 2009 piece providing an in depth look at the Mets history with Japanese imports.  I'm not going to give a summary of the article, but let's just say it makes it clear that the Mets have made some major mistakes bringing in Japanese players.

That brings us to the 2010 Mets from Japan, Ryoto Igarashi and Hisanori Takahashi.  At this point, Igarashi is filling an undeserved roster spot and hurting the Mets' ability to win.  He has allowed at least one baserunner in 8 of his last 9 appearances, and most have been worse, the low point being last week in San Diego where he allowed 6 ER and got just 1 out.  He had some success in his early outings, but his control has failed him, and watching him is rather painful.  His ERA for the year now stands at 10.97, his WHIP at 2.16, and his BAA sits at .318.  Most impressive are his 4 K's against 9 walks - not exactly what you look for in a reliever, especially one Jerry and Omar envisioned as a 8th inning set up man.  This leaves the Mets with Elmer Dessens as the current set up man, which anyone with 2 eyes knows is a temporary fix and disaster waiting to happen.  The best thing for the team right now would be to send Igarashi to extended spring training, or to the minors and call up a younger arm and see what they can do.  Perhaps it's time to give Bobby Parnell another shot in the pen?

Takahashi's been much better, there is no question, but his last two starts have raised some major red flags. We are all aware of the success Takahashi had in his first two starts, going 6 shutout innings in each, and leading the Mets to wins against the Yankees and the Phillies.  However, his last two starts have been as terrible as the first two were great, and I don't think it's a fluke.  Takahashi by no means has overwhelming stuff, and it's looked to me like the opposition has discovered some kind of pattern to his pitches, as they've gotten completely locked in, and certainly gotten more selective.  The 3 HR he's given up in his last 9.1 IP after only giving up 1 in his first 36 is definitely a red flag, especially as all 3 have come in two of the more notoriously spacious parks, Citi and Petco.   It's certainly not time to give up on Takahashi, as his wide array of pitches gives him the potential for success, but it's definitely time for Dan Warthen to review the films and see where Takahashi is either tipping pitches, or where the opposition is seeing a pattern.  In order for this Mets team to be successful, they'll need something from Takahashi, be it in the rotation or out of the pen, so getting on top of his recent struggles with the longball should be priority one for Warthen.

A few random notes from yesterday...


  • I'm not usually someone that buys into the "spiritual aspect" of the game (heart, hustle, grit, chemistry, et al.), but what Jeff Francoeur does for this team truly transcends the stat sheet.  When he hit that game tying 3 run homer yesterday, you knew there was no way this team would let him down.  Losing was not an option.  Yesterday marked 10 straight with a hit for Frenchy, during which time he's 17 for 36, raising his season average from .216 to .268.  
  • David Wright also continues to swing a hot bat, going 3-5 yesterday.  He's now 13 for his last 25, and most importantly, yesterday marked the 3rd straight game in which he did not strike out, the first time he's gone three straight without a whiff since he went four straight from Aug 2-5 of last year.  Amazing how much more successful this offense is when Wright is making contact.  The media and SNY continue to make a case for Reyes being the key to this offense, but often at the expense of overlooking Wright.  When Wright is on his game and putting the ball in play instead of striking out 2 or 3 times, this team is tough to beat.
  • Angel Pagan has really grown from being a fourth OF to being an integral piece of this Mets team.  The Mets are going to have an extremely difficult decision to make when (if) Beltran returns in the 2nd half, because the way all 3 OF's are playing right now makes it a near impossible choice to sit one of them.  If only Jason Bay could learn to play 2B, right?  Man, that would be hilarious to watch.
  • Tough series for Jose Reyes, going 1 for 10 over the 3 games.  At this point, his frustration is clear, and I wonder with Tejada on the roster if it might be time for him to get a day off to clear his head and watch the game from the dugout.  His OPS sits at a pathetically low .628, and he's just a trainwreck at this dish sometimes.  
  • Dan Uggla continues to hit bombs on the Mets.  That's 5 of his 13 HR this year coming against them.  I can't remember ever seeing a percentage that high coming against one team.  Wow.
  • Pretty telling that Fredi Gonzalez was willing to concede a run last night in the 8th to minimize the damage, thinking it wouldn't be that hard to score off K-Rod in the 9th.   Frankie got the job done, but made it exciting as always.  That's now 7 of his last 9 appearances where he's allowed at least one runner to reach base.  Shutdown closer, right?  It's never easy with K-Rod, another reason why being a Met fan sucks.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Game #56 (29-27) - Who is the Real Jon Niese?

The Mets won their NL leading 21st home game yesterday, and it was one of those rare days where it felt good to be a Met fan.  They looked great in all aspects of the game, and played well for all nine frames; in all, it was one of the stronger performances of the year.  Jon Niese gave 7 strong innings in his first start back after 3 weeks on the shelf, but to look at things pessimistically, it's become maddening to try and figure out exactly what the Mets have in Niese.  This was the 4th of his 9 starts this year in which he's pitched well, and probably right up there with his April 30th start at Philly for his best of the year.    It was similar in 2009, where 2 of his 4 starts were good, and the others were on the other end of the performance spectrum.  On the good side, Niese is only 23 with only 17 MLB starts under his belt, but he has yet to find any kind of consistent groove at the top level, and so for now he's still another question mark in the rotation.   We'll get a little bit more information on Niese when he makes his next start against Baltimore this weekend; he should perform well against the worst team in baseball, and if he doesn't it will only make the Niese question more maddening

Lots of positives yesterday, and I hate  to focus on them, but it was REALLY nice to see that kind of production from Davis and Wright in the middle of the lineup.  If they can find any sort of groove, the Mets could be on their way to a really nice little run, especially with another home series up next with the Padres, and then trips to see the two worst teams in the AL (Baltimore and Cleveland) before the rematch with the Yankees at the Stadium starting June 18th.   On top of Niese's effort, the Mets got extremely efficient work from Mejia and Nieve, only needing 19 pitches to get the final 6 outs, with only 1 hit.

I'd also like to make a quick note about a terrible column I read from Larry Brooks today in the NY Post.  The column advocates a trade for Cliff Lee, which I agree is a great idea.  What makes Brooks' column lazy journalism is at no point does he mention how the Mets should pull off said trade, what teams they'd have to compete with (and how the farm systems would match up), or Lee's financial situation for the remainder of the year.  Sportswriters so often criticize bloggers for being "lazy", meanwhile to read a professional piece like Brooks' that is so poorly fleshed out makes me wonder if we've reached a point where the amateurs have truly surpassed the pros.  Food for thought.

The Mets go for the sweep today at 1:10 PM with Takahashi-san trying to rebound from his poor outing Monday in San Diego against Ricky Nolasco.  Nolasco has made more starts against the Mets than any other team, going 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.46 in 15 career starts.  He is right-handed though, so when Wright goes 0-4 with 3K's against him, it'll be a nice reminder of why being a Met fan sucks.

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Game #55 (28-27) - Home is where the heart is

Just a few quick notes on last night's game, cause it actually wasn't terrible and I don't have a ton to complain about after finally breaking a 6 game losing streak against the Marlins.


  • How ridiculous is it that R.A. Dickey is the Met's #3 starter this year?  Unfortunately, I'm in the camp of waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Dickey has never posted an ERA under 5 in a season in which he made multiple starts, so it's tough to see him maintaining a sub-4.00 this year.  The biggest reason for Dickey's success has been his 81.9% strand rate, a whopping deviation from his career rate of 70.4%.  If he's unable to maintain his strand rate, which is likely, he'll return to the mediocrity that has defined his career to this point.  That's going to be bad news for this Mets team.
  • The home/road split drives me crazy, and I really wish I had any idea why it happens.  It's tough to decide which team is the real Mets, but it would be great if they'd stop teasing us by playing like the best team in the NL when they play at home, and then the worst as soon as they leave Queens.  Just pick one and go with it!
  • Jason Bay continues to swing a hot bat, the only problem is that it's got an Ichiro amount of pop in it.    His ISO is a career low .152, and his HR/FB% of 4.5 is the lowest of his career by a WIDE margin. Hopefully he can return at least to his 2007 rate of 11.4%, which was the lowest of his career in a season in which he managed only 21 HR.  His .299 average is propped up by an unsustainable .387 BABIP, but I'd happily trade some of that average for getting some power out of the 3 hole, especially with Ike and Wright continuing to struggle.  Bay is OPS'ing at a 1.034 clip at Citi, and .624 away with it - that goes a lot towards explaining the overall team home/road split. doesn't it?
  • At this point, I'll take any save from K-Rod I can get, but I cannot remember the last time he closed a game with a 1-2-3 inning.  Watching him is just brutal, isn't it?
  • One last thing - am I the only one who feels like it's a minor victory in any game when Wright doesn't strike out?  It gives me hope that the switch is turning on - of course until the next game when he goes 0-4 with 4 K's.
The Mets go for yet another home W today at 4:10 with Niese returning to the mound against lefty Nate Robertson.  Let's hope the success against lefties the Mets had in San Diego isn't blown by the bullpen like it was on Wednesday.  If it happens again, you can understand why being a Met fan sucks.