Revisiting an Old Debate

Once upon a time, I took part in a fantasy baseball league in which one of the members, an avid Yankee fan, proposed the outrageous idea that Robinson Cano was a more valuable and better player than Jose Reyes.  In 2007, when this idea was first proposed, it was flat out ridiculous.  Looking back, perhaps he was on to something.  In 2010, to propose Reyes as the superior player to Cano would be flat out ridiculous, no?  So let's take a closer look beneath the surface to see what happened here.  While the two players have completely different styles, and as such are difficult to compare, it's still fun to note the divergent trajectories their two careers are currently on.

Injuries, of course, are the first thing that come to mind when talking about the perceived diminished value of Reyes, but I'm not sure that tells the whole story.  In 2006, Reyes would hit .300 with 19 HR, 81 RBI, 122 R, and an impressive .354 OBP and .487 slugging.  Sadly, all of those numbers other than the OBP remain career highs.  He was 23 years old, and as Met fans we were ready to christen him the next great shortstop - if he could do this at 23, would 30 HR with 80 steals be possible in his peak years?  Fast forward to 2010.  Reyes has been hot of late, but even then, he's not close to the player he was in 2006-2008.  His walk rate is down to 5%, lowest since 2005, and has helped dragged his OBP beneath the Pudge line to .293.  His ISO, or isolated power, stands at .098, the lowest it's been in his career.  His flyball rate has jumped over 40 percent for the first time in his career, while at the same time his HR/FB rate has dropped all the way to 1.3%, far and away the lowest he's ever had.  I guess that's what happens when most of the fly balls you hit are weak pop ups.  His line drive rate is also at an all time low; in short, Reyes' offensive game has reached a nadir that none of us would ever have seen coming.  Unless, of course, we were seasoned Met fans.  Reyes' WAR currently stands at 0.5 - in his 2006-2008 peak he was at 5.5, 5.7, and 6.0.  In just two years, Reyes has gone from being an elite shortstop to one who is barely above replacement level.  Ah, the joys of being a Met fan.

On the flip side of the argument, you have Robinson Cano, the best homegrown talent of the 2000's Yankees crop.  While other more ballyhooed prospects like Chien Mien-Wang, Brandon Claussen, Eric Duncan, Drew Henson, and Dioneer Navarro have all but disappeared from the baseball landscape, Cano has flourished.  An undrafted free agent signed out of the DR at only 18, Cano was the Yankees #2 prospect in Baseball America's rankings in November 2004, but failed to crack their overall top 100.  Cano broke into the majors in May 2005 and took over a starting position immediately, posting solid offensive numbers at the bottom of the Yankee order while playing an atrocious second base.  From there, the rest is that storied Yankee history that makes me want to stab my eyes out and go Van Gogh on my ears.  With the exception of a blip on the radar in 2007, where an extremely unlucky .283 BABIP (a massive deviation from Cano's otherwise .335 career rate) drove Cano to a .271 average, Cano has become unquestionably the best offensive 2B in the American League (sorry Pedroia, MVP award aside, Cano is just better).  In 2009 and thus far in 2010 he's actually begun to challenge the mighty Chase Utley for the title of best in the majors, at least at the plate.  At the same time, Cano has even become a passable defensive player.  While advanced defensive metrics such as UZR, RngR, and UZR/150 continue to define Cano as below league average, he's gotten closer to the norm the past two years, and his massive bat more than makes up for it.  In fact, he's already started to draw media attention as a leading AL MVP candidate in 2010.  Sickening, isn't it?  While a pretty strong jump in HR/FB rate early on looks sure to drop off for Cano, the same exponential growth is what brought Joe Mauer the award in 2009 as he sustained it for the whole season.

Basically, what's happened is that Cano has continued to progess as a player from his age 23 to 27 seasons almost undeterred, while Reyes has first been derailed by injuries in 2009 and now by an incredible drop in performance in 2010.  Both players are 27, and as we've seen countless times before, anything can happen.  Perhaps Reyes will regain and expand on his 2006-2008 form, and perhaps Cano will be hurt or lose his swing.  For now though, the Cano vs. Reyes debate and how it's progressed is just another example of why BEING A MET FAN SUCKS.