Game #61 (33-28) - Robert Allan is on Fire

I didn't get to watch last night's game in full, so just a couple of notes from the boxscore, as the Mets got a rare road win, albeit against the worst team in baseball.

• Another successful start for R.A. Dickey, his fourth straight start with a W.  Once again he posted an above average strand rate, which continues to be the key to his success.   After last night, Dickey's strand rate of 82.9% is 7th in the major leagues (interestingly, Pelfrey is 8th with 82.4%); only one player finished with a higher rate in 2009 over the full season.  Look for Dickey's ERA to get closer to his 3.91 xFIP in the next month.
• David Wright showed that perhaps his struggles in Thursday's doubleheader were an aberration, going 3-4 with 2 RBI.  Wright is now hitting .462 in his last 12 games.  While most of that damage has been done against lefties, he has shown flashes of his former competence against righties.  I'm not getting my hopes up just yet, but if Wright can make some adjustments there, this team might be able to make some noise in the NL East.
• Congrats to Chris Carter on his first major league home run.  Carter's power numbers have always been borderline elite at the minor league level, and while I personally don't think he has potential to be a well rounded hitter, it would be great if he could add some pop to the tune of a homer ever 20 AB's or so.  His pitch selection leaves something to be desired, as you can read more about here, in a great piece from Amazin' Avenue.
• Jason Bay went for another 0-fer yesterday and he's now 1 for his last 21.  Bay's OPS still sits at a measly .780, and he looks on track to repeat his miserable 2007 performance with the Pirates, although he hasn't been as bad as that quite yet.  His 2007 WAR was an ugly -0.7, while this year he's managed a 1.0.  Were his WAR converted to dollars for free agency, Bay would be worth around $3.6M - quite a far cry from his actual salary, and an even bigger differential from his $22.6M value from last year.  Did somebody say Jeromy Burnitz?
• To give you an idea of just how bad the Orioles are, they are currently on pace to finish the season 45-117.  The only times this century a team lost 117 games or more were the 1916 Philadelphia A's, who managed the feat in 154 games, and the 2003 Tigers, who finished 43-119.  Too bad there's no Strasburg or Bryce Harper in the 2011 draft.

The Mets will look to win their 7th game in the last 8 tonight in Baltimore, with Hisanori Takahashi taking the hill against 23 year old Orioles lefty Brian Matuz.  If the Mets find a way to lose this one, trust me, I'll have a lot more reasons tomorrow about why being a met fan sucks.

Game #58 (31-27) - Home is Where the Winning Is

Another game at Citi Field, another win for Jerry and Co.  That's 23-9 on the year now and the Mets keep pace with the Phillies in pursuit of the Braves.  I really don't understand this team - at home, they're the best team in baseball; on the road, they've been the 1962 Mets.  What can I say though, when they're at home, it's hard to find a lot to complain about.  As always, here's some thoughts on tonight's game - and I wasn't able to find too much to complain about.

• The evolution of Mike Pelfrey seems to be the real deal.  Big Pelf has now given up 2 ER or less in 8 of 12 starts this year, and has given the Mets at least 7 innings in 7 of the 12.  His ERA for the year now stands at 2.23, and his WHIP at 1.17.  Most importantly he has a 58/28 K/BB rate, compared to the 107/66 he posted last year.   It would seem that the addition of the split-finger has really pushed Pelf over the top, and he's been one of the NL's best pitchers this year.  He's throwing the splitter around 18 percent of the time, and as a result, his reliance on the fastball has dramatically decreased. In 2008, Pelf threw fastballs a whopping 81.2% of the time; after tonight, that number hovers right around 65%.  Pelfrey has definitely been the beneficiary of some good luck, as evidenced by his 83% strand rate and a BABIP that is around 30 points off from his career average.  Still, his FIP is at 3.28, which, while a large deviation from his realized ERA, suggests that even the bumps in the road will keep him performing like the solid #2 that the Mets need him to be.
• Ike Davis' walk off had to be a 450 foot bomb, and good for Ike.  He continues to show flashes of brilliance mixed in with some terrible at-bats, but the future looks bright for him.  I still don't think he should be hitting in the cleanup spot - I understand what Manuel is trying to do, but I would really rather see Bay or Wright in that slot.  Speaking of....
• Terrible game for Jason Bay.  0 for 5 with 3 K's, and he rushed into a weak ground out with Pagan on 3rd in the bottom of the 10th.  He definitely appears to be pressing at times, which is to be expected with his lack of power, as I discussed last week.   He doesn't seem to have a consistent approach from game to game.  One day he'll look like he's got it all figured out and go 3-4, and then he'll have a game like tonight where he looks like a slumping rookie.  I can't say I expected Bay to live up to his terrible contract, but I'm hoping for a little bit more than this.  His lack of power continues to be extremely frustrating.
• It would be hypocritical of me to not point out how good K-Rod looked tonight.  He looked like the K-Rod of old, and was dominant in his inning of work.
• On the same token, nice to see Reyes with a homer - what wasn't nice was watching him stare the ball down the whole way.  You're not Manny Ramirez, Jose.  You don't hit the ball far enough to assume a HR.  Unacceptable.

Around baseball, all I can say about Stephen Strasburg is wow.  He truly looked incredible tonight, and it's going to be fun to watch him.  He has incredible command of 4 pitches, and can throw any of them in any count; as he matures as a pitcher, he has the potential to develop into 1997-2002 Pedro.  His raw stuff is THAT good.  On the offensive side,  Mike Stanton went 3-5 in his debut, including 2 infield hits.  He's HUGE for 20 years old, and if he can limit the strikeouts he could be a force to be reckoned with in the NL East for as long as the Marlins can keep him from being bought by the Yankees.  Between him, Jason Heyward, and Strasburg, they are sure to provide many reasons in the coming years for why being a met fan sucks.

Game #55 (28-27) - Home is where the heart is

Just a few quick notes on last night's game, cause it actually wasn't terrible and I don't have a ton to complain about after finally breaking a 6 game losing streak against the Marlins.

• How ridiculous is it that R.A. Dickey is the Met's #3 starter this year?  Unfortunately, I'm in the camp of waiting for the other shoe to drop.  Dickey has never posted an ERA under 5 in a season in which he made multiple starts, so it's tough to see him maintaining a sub-4.00 this year.  The biggest reason for Dickey's success has been his 81.9% strand rate, a whopping deviation from his career rate of 70.4%.  If he's unable to maintain his strand rate, which is likely, he'll return to the mediocrity that has defined his career to this point.  That's going to be bad news for this Mets team.
• The home/road split drives me crazy, and I really wish I had any idea why it happens.  It's tough to decide which team is the real Mets, but it would be great if they'd stop teasing us by playing like the best team in the NL when they play at home, and then the worst as soon as they leave Queens.  Just pick one and go with it!
• Jason Bay continues to swing a hot bat, the only problem is that it's got an Ichiro amount of pop in it.    His ISO is a career low .152, and his HR/FB% of 4.5 is the lowest of his career by a WIDE margin. Hopefully he can return at least to his 2007 rate of 11.4%, which was the lowest of his career in a season in which he managed only 21 HR.  His .299 average is propped up by an unsustainable .387 BABIP, but I'd happily trade some of that average for getting some power out of the 3 hole, especially with Ike and Wright continuing to struggle.  Bay is OPS'ing at a 1.034 clip at Citi, and .624 away with it - that goes a lot towards explaining the overall team home/road split. doesn't it?
• At this point, I'll take any save from K-Rod I can get, but I cannot remember the last time he closed a game with a 1-2-3 inning.  Watching him is just brutal, isn't it?
• One last thing - am I the only one who feels like it's a minor victory in any game when Wright doesn't strike out?  It gives me hope that the switch is turning on - of course until the next game when he goes 0-4 with 4 K's.

The Mets go for yet another home W today at 4:10 with Niese returning to the mound against lefty Nate Robertson.  Let's hope the success against lefties the Mets had in San Diego isn't blown by the bullpen like it was on Wednesday.  If it happens again, you can understand why being a Met fan sucks.