The Approaching Trade Deadline

We are now almost at the halfway point in the season, and with the first day of summer, it's time for the trade talk to start heating up.   Let's be realistic here, the Mets simply cannot win a World Series this year as they are currently constructed.  The pitching staff has been incredible for the last month, but a rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Takahashi, and Dickey does not a champion make.  Santana is clearly in decline, but still a top 15 pitcher in baseball.  Pelfrey has proven to be a solid #2 thus far, but has struggled in his last two starts, and let's keep in mind that he's only thrown 200 innings in a season once, in 2008 (200.2).  He's currently on pace for 218, and how his arm responds down the stretch will be huge for the Mets.  Keep in mind that in 2008, Pelfrey went 11-2 with a 3.01 ERA over the months of June, July, and August; in September he went 0-3 with a 4.07 ERA as the Mets collapsed for the 2nd season in a row.  Niese, while outstanding of late, is far from a sure thing, and has never thrown more than 178 innings in a season.  We've talked enough about Takahashi and Dickey to get my thoughts across, but, needless to say, neither one is really a guy you'd love to see trot out there in Game 4 of a playoff series.  With that in mind, let's take a look first at the names we're sure to hear the most in trade talks, and a brief overview of their status.

• Cliff Lee - Lee is unquestionably the biggest name expected to be available at the trade deadline.  He's established himself over the past two plus seasons as a legitimate ace, and gets bonus points for being a lefty.  He's been out of this world this year, posting a 5-3 record for a terrible Mariners club with a 2.55 ERA.  His peripheral stats are where the story is truly told though.  He sports an absolutely ridiculous 1.89 FIP and a 67/4 K/BB rate.  To put that in perspective, in the past 35 seasons, only two pitchers have ever posted an FIP under 2: Pedro Martinez at 1.39 in his 1999 season (considered by almost all advanced statistics to be the greatest pitching season of all time) and Doc Gooden in his 1984 rookie season, when he posted a 1.69 FIP.  The current 16.75 K/BB rate would be the greatest of all time by more than 50% - Bret Saberhagen holds the current record with a 11.0 rate in 1994.    As we saw in last year's playoffs, Lee has proven himself to be a quality pitcher under pressure.  The issue, of course, with Lee is that he is expected to be nothing more than a $5M rental for any team, and the Yankees are currently considered a nearly sure thing destination for him in free agency.  MLB sources are saying the Mariners are seeking major league ready bats.  My question is this; if Beltran is back at the All-Star break and proves himself healthy, what about a package of Angel Pagan, Fernando Martinez, and a toss in for Lee?  I personally don't even think the price would need to be that steep - the breakout year of Pagan, combined with the pending return of Beltran gives the Mets 4 OF's who should be playing every day, and kind of leaves F-Mart's future in slight flux, even though he's just 21.  Lee should be high on the Mets list, as long as the price stays reasonable, as he would give the Mets 2 of the top 5 lefties in baseball at the front of their rotation.
• Roy Oswalt - Astros' righty Oswalt has had a solid bounce-back campaign with the Astros this year after posting the worst numbers of his career last season.  His ERA stands at 3.12, back in line with his 2002-2007 rate of 3.11.  Most importantly, he's showing a rebirth in his style, throwing his changeup more than twice as much as he had previously in his career, and throwing fastballs only 55% of the time, the lowest rate of his career.  This has resulted in a surge in his strikeouts, and his 8.68 K/9 is the highest he's posted since his 2001 rookie season.  His BABIP is slightly below his .302 career mark at .281, but a deviation that small wouldn't be expected to skew his numbers too significantly.   One of the more interesting tidbits supporting adding Oswalt for a stretch run is his stellar track record of 2nd half success.  A 72-56 career record before the break jumps to a 70-22 ledger in the 2nd half (a gross .761 winning percentage.), and his peripherals all improve significantly.  Oswalt's contract situation is perhaps his biggest drawback, as he'd be owed around $8M for 2010, and is under contract for 2011 and 2012 at $16M per season, although the 2012 year comes with a unique dual clause; the club has a $2M buyout, and Oswalt has the option to opt out on his own for a "reduced" buyout.  Very strange.  It's not yet clear what the Astros are looking for in return for Oswalt, or even if owner Drayton McLane (who's known for clinging tightly to players he personally likes) will make him available.  Like Lee, Oswalt has had playoff success, although his 4-0 record is misleading, as it's accompanied by a 1.44 WHIP and a very pedestrain 1.68 K/BB rate.  He hasn't been to the playoffs since 2005, however, and a return to a contender could truly bring out the best in the fiery Oswalt.  
• Fausto Carmona - At his blog for ESPN today, Buster Olney reports that the Mets have been kicking the tires on Carmona over the past few weeks.  After I throw up on myself, I decided to take a closer look at Carmona, and what I've found is none too pretty.  The story on Carmona is well known - he posted a massive 2007 season in his 2nd year, finishing 4th in the AL Cy Young voting while going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for an Indians team that won the AL Central.   His 2008 and 2009 seasons were injury-riddled disasters, including a demotion to AAA in 2009 in an effort to help him find his stuff.  Carmona features a heavy sinking fastball, a slider, and a change, and some scouts blame his troubles in 2008/9 on his decision to ditch a split fingered fastball which had given him a great deal of success in 2007.   However, after posting a 5.89 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last two seasons, Carmona has had more success in 2010, going 6-5 over his first 14 starts with a 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Most importantly his 3.98 FIP is right in line with his 3.94 FIP of 2007, suggesting that a return to a better team could see a big jump in his victory total.  The principal concern with Carmona, of course, is that he's got a good amount of Ollie Perez in him, though not as severe.  He's liable to go off for 6 walks virtually any time out there and when his control is off, he's virtually guaranteed to take a loss.  Carmona does, however, have a friendly contract; he's due only another $2.6M this year, $6.1M this year, and then he's got team options at $7M for 2012, $9M for 2013, and $12M for 2014.  At the worst, if Carmona did turn out to be Ollie, they could cut him loose and lose only $8.7M on it.  Compared to Ollie's contract, that's chump change.
• Jake Westbrook - I've said it before, so I'll make this brief.  The problem with Westrbook is that he's really just an average pitcher, and in one of Mark Shapiro's rare bad decisions, he's paid like a very good one.  He's making $10M this year and $11M next, and for a pitcher who's career ERA+ is pretty much the definition of league average at 101, that's just too much money.  He's 32, and in my opinion I'd much rather keep some young players than take a "flier" on Westbrook.  End of the day, he's not really a major improvement over Takahashi, Dickey, or even a healthy Maine, so what's the point in making a move for him?
• Kevin Millwood - Let's put this simply.  PLEASE OMAR DO NOT TRADE FOR THIS WASHED UP LOSER.  Millwood was once one of the better pitchers in the National League, but that was more than a decade ago.  He posted a 3.67 ERA for Texas last season, which seems superb on the surface, until you look at his 4.80 FIP.  With a BABIP of .279 which was a massive 80 points lower than his 2008 and 2009 combined, and a 78.6% strand rate that ranked 10th in the majors it's pretty easy to see that Millwood is a declining pitcher who was saved by some luck.  The Rangers must have seen this as well, practically giving him away to the Orioles for Chris Ray of the 7.72 ERA and a player to be named later.  Millwood started with a strong April, and had his ERA as low as 3.15 on May 7th.  Since then, however, he has gone 1-5, while his ERA has ballooned to 5.12.  Most importantly, the only outlier in his advanced statistics is his HR rate, which is 16.1, compared to his career 9.8%.  Nothing suggests Millwood would be an improvement for the Mets, and he's surely cost at least a player like Dillon Gee; who, at this point, could be better than Millwood anyway.  
• Ben Sheets - Sheets is an interesting wild card in the trade deadline derby.  After the A's shocked everyone and inked Sheets to a 1 year $10 million dollar deal coming off major elbow surgery, Sheets has been anywhere from bad to worse thus far, going 2-7 with a 4.95 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.94 FIP.  His HR/FB, BABIP, line drive, and GB/FB rates are all roughly in line with his career averages, so it's tough to point to bad luck for his poor performance.  The only reason he could be worth a flier is that he's a free agent next year and the hope that he could revert to his pre-injury form by returning to the NL.  That said, at this point, it's hard to imagine Sheets being a major contributor on a playoff team.
• Edwin Jackson - With the Diamondbacks floundering in last place, they seem like locks to make some moves at the deadline.   While younger starters like Ian Kennedy are likely to stay in place, the D-Backs would likely move veterans like Jackson and (gasp) Dan Haren.  Jackson is sure to be the cheaper piece, so let's take a look at him first.  Once the top pitching prospect in baseball while a Dodger, Jackson floundered in brief stints at the major league level for them, before being traded before the 2006 season to Tampa for Danys Baez and Lance Carter.  He struggled there as well until seeming to break through in the 2008 season, going 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA.  Thanks to the Rays' abundance of pitching, Jackson was moved to the Tigers for the 2009 season, where he was again successful, going 13-9 with a career low 3.62 ERA.  Traded to the D-Backs in the offseason as part of the 3-team deal centering on Curtis Granderson, Jackson has appeared to struggle on a bad team, going 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA.  However, Jackson is actually performing at the highest level of his career; his 4.07 FIP is the lowest of his career, his 7.62 K/9 is the highest he's posted, and his HR/9 is at a career low despite his HR/FB% being right in line with his career numbers.  This is one case where poor results seem to be based on being on a poor defensive team, and a change of scenery could be exactly what Jackson needs to follow through on his career best peripherals.  He's still only 26, and is under team control next year as an arbitration eligible case - in short, he's exactly the type of young player that would be worth a flier on.
• Dan Haren - It's likely that any team looking to acquire Haren will have to dump their entire farm system in order to get him, as he's only 29 and under contract from 2011-13 for $41M.  Haren is commonly viewed as an ace, although it's tough to find a justification for that in his overall numbers.  He's always been an elite pitcher in the first half of seasons, but for some inexplicable reason, a 2nd half collapse from Haren has become a standard of every year.   In 2009 his ERA and WHIP jumped from first half marks of 2.01 and 0.81 to 4.62 and 1.26; in 2008 it was 2.72 and 0.95 to 4.18 and 1.37; 2007 was 2.30 and 1.00 to 4.15 and 1.50; and lastly, in 2006 he went from 3.52 and 1.13 to 4.91 and 1.31.   Swings like that are tough to ignore, at least on a contender; it's tough to call a player an "ace" when he posts league-average numbers in the 2nd half every year.   Haren's splits also show his worst FIP, WHIP, BAA, and won-loss record come in September - so you have to ask yourself if at the price that it would take to acquire Haren, is he even worth it?  You decide.

For me, the players I'd most like to see the Mets key on are Lee, Oswalt, and Jackson.  As I mentioned before, the breakout of Pagan could end up offer the Mets some flexibility in trading, especially for Lee and Oswalt.  I'm also firmly in the camp of trading Fernando Martinez now while his stock is still even remotely high.  Martinez may only be 21, but he continues to be injury prone, and to be honest, his performance does not live up to his hype.  Optimists can say what they want about how he's been so young at every level, but at some point you need to see results, and after almost 1200 minor league at bats, F-Mart's OPS is a meager .781.  With players like Stanton and Heyward coming up even younger than Martinez is, it gets harder to be patient with him.  Given the track record of the Mets with Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, and Lastings Milledge before Martinez, if he's to be the piece that can acquire a true frontline starter and give them a real chance to win this year, I say it's 100 percent a move you have to make.  For players like Millwood and Westbrook, they don't seem to be worth even the lower tier prospects in the system, and I'd love to see the Mets avoid them at all costs.  Ruben Tejada is a player I wouldn't like to see the Mets move unless it was for one of the aces, and I feel the same about Brad Holt and Dillon Gee.  Obviously, Ike Davis is at this point untouchable, and unfortunately I doubt Daniel "overhyped with no talent" Murphy has any real value out there.  It would seem to me that it's going to take a player like Martinez or Pagan to acquire the type of pitcher essential to helping the Mets win this year.  

Speaking of untradeable prospects, the Mets have finally decided to move Mejia back to AA Binghamton to continue his growth as a starter, and called Bobby Parnell back to the bullpen to move into Mejia's undefined role.  About time huh?

Would be great to hear what some of you think about the Mets' trade prospects, so please give some comments and let's get a little dialogue going!  We all know that at the end of the day, the Mets won't do anything exciting, one of the endless reasons why being a Met fan sucks.